By Luke Hawkins
Recent results in the two-mile chasing division have blown this season’s renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham wide open.
Chacun Pour Soi is the 11/10 favourite at the time of writing and it is easy to see why. Having gone three starts unbeaten since his defeat to A Plus Tard last season at Leopardstown, he has beaten the star that is Min in the Dublin Chase. He also beat smart rivals Notebook and Put The Kettle On in his most recent appearance displaying great travelling ability and efficient jumping. It would be no surprise to see him win the Champion Chase based on the opposition he has beaten and a prolific winning record. However, I don’t think he justifies such a short price in the market and the two-mile chase division looks very competitive this season. When winning at Leopardstown last time out he won by six and a half lengths, a distance that is impressive but with the final fence being bypassed, a bigger win margin might have been expected. For example, a prime Altior possibly may have opened a margin of ten lengths in the same circumstances. The biggest question mark over Chacun Pour Soi is his defeat to A Plus Tard. Unlike his victory over Min, when Min faded late, A Plus Tard grinded down Mullin’s runner in the late stages with Chacun Pour Soi tiring and tightening late on. A Plus Tard has since gone on to the three mile chase division so clearly has stamina. At the same point in the race against Min, his nearest rival was fading. Things didn’t go Chacun Pour Soi’s way and the uphill finish at Cheltenham will test his stamina. If he goes head to head with a horse that can see out the end of the race better he may have a problem.
Politologue – The reigning Champion added a second Tingle Creek to his resume in December. The expected duel between him and rival Altior never came to fruition because Nicky Henderson had concerns about the soft ground that day. Politologue put in an excellent round of jumping and a good performance against stablemate Greaneteen in second and Rouge Vif in third who impressed in a handicap at Cheltenham in October but was probably running on unfavoured soft ground on this occasion. The field may not have been the deepest in quality, but the performance was one of reliability. This Saturday just gone he then went off favourite in a field deeper in quality. He finished a hard fought second to relative newcomer First Flow. It was a gutsy run, and the pace was furious especially considering the soft conditions. More undulations, such as those at Cheltenham and Sandown would appear to work in the champion’s favour but with newcomers and plenty of competition, he isn’t a certainty to retain his crown but should be in the top three.
Put The Kettle On – She may require some patience to see where she goes as the Mares Chase at the festival is also an entry for this horse. Although she was well beaten by Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown when she was last seen, she had built up a hattrick of wins at Cheltenham prior including a victory in the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham festival last season. At Leopardstown she didn’t jump as fluidly as she normally does until late on in the race and the fair galloping nature of the course didn’t suit her as as well as the undulating course at Cheltenham does. She sees out the uphill straight at Cheltenham really well and perhaps benefits from the extra stamina test. This is somewhere Chacun Pour Soi is perhaps untested in far too often and when he was tested for stamina, lost to A Plus Tard who has gone on to be a prominent winner in the stayers division. Put The Kettle On would carry 7lb less than her rivals because she is a mare and is worth an each way shout providing she is confirmed as a certain entry so wait if backing her.
Altior – at 11 years old it is possible we have already seen Altior’s peak. He is a great but after finishing second to Nube Negra in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton some doubts were somewhat confirmed. After hitting his familiar flat spot, he didn’t quite come back with the same finishing speed we are used to, and he looked very tired in the straight. He was withdrawn from the Champion Chase last season due to concerns after his race against Cyrname at Ascot in November 2019. He was similarly withdrawn from the Champion Chase last season, and most recently the renewal of the Tingle Creek at Sandown. Trainer Nicky Henderson is trying to look after the horse and run him in conditions that suit him best as tough races appear to take more of a toll on the horse at the late stages of his career. It is something he has said he is keen to do for the horse’s wellbeing after the loss to Cyrname. The defeat to Nube Negra was his seasonal debut and horses in the past have been able to bounce back from such a performance on their return. He only lost by three and a half lengths to a clearly improved Nube Negra in a well-run race but the Altior of old would have found an extra gear in the straight and I think there are more appealing options as the great horse is ageing.
Nube Negra – Horses from Dan Skelton’s yard have really produced some eye-catching performances this season. Shan Blue won the Kauto Star Chase at the December meeting at Cheltenham, Roksana recently picked up a good win in a mare’s hurdle at Ascot and Allmankind remains prominent in the Arkle Chase market as opposition for Shishkin. Nube Negra however perhaps captured the biggest scalp of all at Kempton, lowering the colours of Altior in the Desert Orchid Chase. He likes soft ground but doesn’t seem completely reliant on it and this race reversed the form of his previous race at Warwick where he was beaten by Rouge Vif, who could only manage a distant fourth this time round. Rouge Vif of course would prefer better ground which may account for the swing but Nube Negra does appear greatly improved. Nube Negra showed the ability to jump efficiently and at times exuberantly. Dan Skelton’s runner is a relatively new face in regard to facing horses like Altior and has had three starts at Cheltenham in his career, none of them victorious. All his wins have come on relatively level courses with no undulations. A scruffy jump at the last at Kempton in his winning performance maybe a glimpse at a weakness that will be tested at Cheltenham as he jumped out to the right and split the birch. He may have been tired in the leg after the final turn. He shouldn’t be a mile off because he has excellent ability to travel and jump but I believe the undulations of Cheltenham will test that weakness we saw in the finish when beating Altior. It isn’t a glaring problem and he still beat a class field but Altior hasn’t been on song in recent times and I might be wrong, but with this, the lack of a win at Cheltenham and lack of experience at this top level I think he might fall short.
First Flow – Those who were leaning towards Politologue defending his crown may have been questioning themselves after last week’s Clarence House Chase. There was a blistering pace set by Politologue on soft ground, a run that would have been very testing on stamina as well as speed. First Flow took the race to Politologue with a mile to six furlongs left and took over the running. Once in front First Flow continued the effort eventually breaking the champion’s will. Politologue had nothing left in the tank and this horse ran out an impressive winner. The doubts are that even though undulating, Ascot doesn’t have as many undulations as Cheltenham. He is a horse that can put in a messy jump. On this occasion I think he showed he has the engine and he hasn’t fallen in 11 starts over fences. He has also never finished outside the top three over the big obstacles. Almost all his runs have come on soft to heavy ground and this can be explained by the fact that he is a two-mile chaser who seems to relish a stamina test. This horse wins most of his races with everyone off the bridle in behind and shows strong staying ability at the end of the race. The victory over Politologue showed great speed though and I believe you could do a lot worse than picking First Flow for the Champion Chase. He can be found at a price of 14/1 at the time of writing and proves an exciting prospect, who I think has a big chance of winning at the Cheltenham festival.
Notable mentions:
Min – Legend in his own right, recently been running over two and a half miles and is also entered in the Ryanair, last appearance over two miles a fading second to Chacun Pour Soi after a well run race and trainer Willie Mullins might not run him against the favourite.
Waiting Patiently – Consistent top three finisher, only missed out once when jockey got unseated in the 2018 King George VI Chase. Hasn’t won in five starts and has been running different distances. two miles, two and a half miles and three miles. has entries in the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase. Produced a more competitive finish in the 2020 King George VI Chase so might go to the Gold Cup.
Hawkinsport 