STUMPTOWN

FOUR of the last six winners have won at the Cheltenham Festival before running at Aintree, with Tiger Roll winning the Cross Country before both of his victories in 2018 and 2019. Stumptown is coming off the back of a victory in that race and just meets positive age trends being an eight year old, while more winners tend to be nine or ten. A win here would be his fifth win in a row going back to May and he has developed into a really efficient, tough chaser who travels very late into a race. This was evident in his victory over the cross country course at Cheltenham in December, before carrying top weight to victory over the same course at the Cheltenham Festival last month. He makes his National debut which is a positive trend. A massive 13 of the last 15 winners have won on their first national run. He runs for Gavin Cromwell who has hit a nice bit of form lately. During the Cheltenham Festival he recorded two winners, but it could easily have been three with Sixandahalf pipped on the line in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and plenty of places in the week too. He was only 2nd to Willie Mullins who boasted a ridiculous ten winners and will likely saddle plenty in this race. The travelling ability and jumping accuracy of Stumptown could be a difference maker here though and he gets first pick and also has a fair amount of support with his price going from 14/1 to around 10/1 since Cheltenham.

PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS

ANOTHER Gavin Cromwell runner, Perceval Legallois, has won on his previous two runs and consistently performs well in big fields, with those wins coming in fields of 25 plus runners which can be crucial here. He finished ahead of a promising looking runner Nick Rockett for Willie Mullins last time and the weights even more in favour of Perceval Legallois this time round. Mark Walsh was quick to sing the horse’s praises after the earlier of his two recent victories in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December, saying the horse got him out of trouble. It feels like after competing at listed and grade 3 level for a while, this horse has developed some good form so might just be ready for a race of this magnitude. He could run a personal best to make the frame here and it feels unlikely that a J P McManus horse won’t feature in the business end. This horse could be the owner’s best chance, with last year’s winner
I Am Maximus yet to show his best form this season and lumbered with top weight. multiple Grand National winning jockey Derek Fox is set to miss the National through injury this season but has been quoted by the Racing Post recently saying this is the horse he would pick to ride from the whole field. He also heaped praise on Mark Walsh who is likely to take the ride.

HYLAND

Hyland has squeezed into the field at the bottom of the weights thanks to recent withdrawals. Nicky Henderson’s grey gave the Cheltenham Festival a miss and would have been my pick for the Ultima. With hindsight he may have just come up short against an athletic Myretown that day, but his late inclusion knocks Nick Rockett down a place to slot him in at 3rd in the verdict. Good ground, a low weight and staying ability are in his favour over this long 4-mile 2^1/2 furlong trip and he ran well in a big field when 2nd of 13 runners last time out at Kempton. His downfall that day was probably having to carry top weight which won’t be a concern here under a very generous 10 stone 6lbs. He started the season as a novice, but he ran regularly through the summer last year and has developed into a consistent staying handicap chaser. The competitive handicap he placed in last time out with a change of tactics only confirmed to me that he wouldn’t be out of place in a Grand National field and the yard sound positive about his chances.

NICK ROCKETT

JUST one of what is likely to be many Willie Mullins runners, Nick Rockett beat the current favourite at the time of writing, Intense Raffles in the grade three Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. This is strong form considering it came at the course where Intense Raffles won the Irish National last season on his preferred soft ground. He also placed 4th behind Perceval Legallois in December whilst conceding an 8lb advantage to Cromwell’s runner. He appears to be coming into his own at the age of eight, just scraping in at the bottom end of the age trends for the race and a win here would make it a hattrick. Giving Stumptown a 6lb advantage in the weights feels like a tough ask, but this horse makes the top four thanks to recent results, good form in big fields and the yard being in red hot form after dominating the Cheltenham Festival. With seven of his likely to make the field at the time of writing, it is hard to imagine that at least one of Mullins’ runners won’t at least make the places and he is a very big price considering his profile.

Verdict