Author: hawkinsport

By Luke Hawkins

This is an article looking at some of the star performers this week and runners that show promise going forward into the flat season. This should offer a short review of each performance, some thoughts on how their season might go and what races are likely targets. Entry information sourced from Attheraces and any hints from trainers should be included.

MUTASAABEQ – The three year old Invincible Spirit colt ran out an emphatic winner at Newmarket on Tuesday over seven furlongs. In second was Charlie Appleby’s charge Noble Dynasty who was coming off a nice win at Kempton. He beat Rifleman, a John Gosden trained horse who won next time out and has a 2000 Guineas entry. Mutasaabeq easily bettered that travelling ability here and showed great balance and a smart turn of foot in the closing stages, easily opening up a 6 length winning margin. He holds no entries but the nature of the victory sparked the suggestion by pundits that connections might consider supplementing him into the 2000 Guineas. Trainer, Charlie Hills, stated they were wary about his temperament, so they didn’t initially enter him in the 2000 Guineas. With such an impressive performance under his belt, the classic race has now come back into strong consideration. Hills sounded optimistic for “plenty of good races” later in the season even if they went to the Guineas and it didn’t work out. This horse will surely pick up a big win this season and looks like he would perform well in graded/listed company.

• ENTRIES:
• N/A

RANSOM – Currently two wins from two starts after winning at Kempton on Wednesday. This four year old Kingman gelding continued the trend of Sir Michael Stoute trained winners on the all-weather to start the season. Interestingly carried a stone or more than the horses who finished in the places and appeared to travel with ease very late on with plenty of cover. The others weren’t without quality with Ibiza Rocks in 3rd already having a win under his belt. Random horse was the biggest in the race showing a huge stride compared to his rivals. He didn’t come off the bridle until in the final furlong and seemed to have more to offer when responding well, with response time an important factor in the final furlong but this horse had the quality. One for the horse tracker as there is little information on where this horse could go next.

• ENTRIES:
• N/A

WORDSWORTH – Full brother to the high class, multi group level winner Kew Gardens. His first run was a ^3/4 length behind current Derby favourite High Definition. Broke his maiden at Curragh on Saturday where he got out of the stalls notably fast. There was a strong pace set but this horse coped with ease and in the last two furlongs he opened a gap between his rivals at the end of a trip of a mile two furlongs. The horses that finished in the places have done so consistently in the few runs they’ve had. This horse should have the legs to go a mile and a half. Trainer, Aidan O’Brien, suggested he should suit a further trip going forward. He hit the line very strongly and in my opinion, possibly had a better turn of foot than Kew Gardens, who used to win by battling hard in the finish and used to outstay rivals in the closing stages. This horse also showed that fighting quality in this performance, but seemed to have a touch of real speed when hitting the line. A step up in trip looks likely as he now holds an entry in the Epsom Derby.

• ENTRIES:
• Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)
• Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
• Cazoo Derby (Group 1)

CHINDIT – Impressed as a juvenile last season, putting up a hattrick of wins before finishing 9th in the Dewhurst. This effort came on unfavoured soft ground and the Irish horses took all top three positions, St Mark’s Basilica putting in an impressive display. Chindit was back to his best on Sunday, winning the group three “Too Darn Hot” Greenham Stakes at Newbury. The race was run at a strong pace and Hollie Doyle on dual winner Mehmento stole a break of about 4 lengths on this horse. Chindit showed great staying ability and better finishing speed to steal the race by a neck, a performance fitting of a class horse. He will probably be aimed at the 2000 Guineas where he will hope for better going than he found in the Dewhurst. With the depth of quality the O’Briens offer, he will probably challenge for the places and may even miss out, but it’s very possible this horse will pick up a big win this season. Courses like Goodwood and Ascot may offer favourable conditions later this year and there may be a race less saturated in quality than the classics will be. Trainer, Pat Dobbs, did confirm that a mile seems to suit.

• ENTRIES
• Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
• Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

14:20 “BETWAY TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE” – THIRD TIME LUCKI

6th in the County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last month.

Was very competitive before fading very late on, only 3 lengths behind eventual winner Belfast Banter.

His best results have come on flat courses and although Belfast Banter won at Cheltenham, it takes a special horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree double.

Favourite Dusart was last seen beating Soaring Glory at Newbury in November, over the same two mile trip but it wasn’t ran at pace.

The pace here should be brisk just like the County Handicap at Cheltenham with Alex Hales’ charge, For Pleasure, being a keen front runner.

The flat galloping nature of Aintree however means there is less concern about Third Time Lucki tiring very late on.

14:50 “MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE” – CHANTRY HOUSE

Won an eventful renewal of the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last time out with Shan Blue 12 lengths back in 5th.

as mentioned before, Cheltenham/Aintree double winners are rare but this horse might just be one.

This horse has won three out of four starts and the one he lost was because of novicey jumping in his second outing over fences.

In the Marsh last month, he avenged this defeat beating Fusil Raffles by 3 lengths, with high quality names Chatham Street Lad and Asterion Forlonge also finishing in behind.

The jumping has been tidied up and to sum up his quality, in last year’s Supreme finished 3rd behind eventual Arkle champion and multiple graded winner over fences Shishkin.

Also in that race finished ahead of Heaven Help us, who won the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last month.

The quality is there and should justify favouritism with Shan Blue likely to be involved late on.

15:25 “MARSH CHASE (MELLING CHASE)” – POLITOLOGUE

The winner of this race in 2018.

Last seen when finishing 7 lengths 2nd to First Flow in the Clarence House Chase over two miles one furlong.

The race was run at a ridiculous pace on stamina sapping soft ground and this horse went with the pace all the way.

First Flow ultimately had first run late on but this horse kept on until just before the last fence.

After that excellent show of stamina and having missed Cheltenham should be in the picture here.

Trainer Paul Nicholls also picked up a double on day one so is in fine form so far at Aintree.

16:05 “TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE” – HUNTSMAN SON

Last time out was 6th to The Shunter at the Cheltenham Festival last month over two and a half miles.

The runner-up from the Red Rum Handicap Chase yesterday, Sully D’oc Aa, finished a length behind Huntsman Son in that race at Cheltenham by 1 length in 8th.

Carribean Boy was also in 7th by a similar margin and the differences in the handicap is relatively similar.

This horse was last victorious at Wetherby in October last year, beating Two For Gold well by 5^1/2 lengths.

The Aintree fences should suit this horse’s ability to put in a big jump and he is one, of only a few horses in the field, who will truly appreciate the ground being good-soft.

16:40 DOOM BAR SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE – STREETS OF DOYEN

Was 3rd last time out in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham last month.

finished 12 lengths behind the winner Vanillier, but the winner was exceptional in the finish uphill and Streets Of Doyen kept on well in 3rd.

This horse has an advantage over the majority of this field, because he has won multiple races over three miles.

Won at Cheltenham last October, ahead of Polish who went on to win a competitive class two hurdle at Newbury.

Even more impressive than that, had a victory over Flooring Porter, who he beat by 5 lengths at Gowran Park last October.

Flooring Porter is now the Champion Stayer after winning the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month.

Although not without a chance, favourite Bravemansgame has been stepped up to this trip for the first time after finishing 3rd last month at Cheltenham, behind bright prospect Bob Olinger.

I think he is more suited to a fence going forward however, and Streets Of Doyen has some pretty impressive scalps under his belt already.

13:45 “SSS SUPER ALLOYS MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE” – HITMAN

Last seen winning on good ground in a three horse race at Newbury in early March ,winning by 9^1/2 lengths, effectively a warm up run.

Previously finished only 2^1/2 lengths behind grade one winning chaser Allmankind over the trip of two miles.

This two and a half mile trip, I feel, suits him better.

Market rival The Shunter won impressively at Cheltenham but horses that do the Cheltenham/Aintree double are rare and it was a demanding race.

Fusil Raffles although has developed efficient clean jumping, the galloping nature of Aintree plays to Hitman’s strengths.

The other two mentioned aren’t no hopers, but Hitman has an excellent chance in the opener.

14:20 “DOOMBAR ANNIVERSARY JUVENILE HURDLE”- ADAGIO

Finished an impressive 3^1/4 lengths 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham to Quilixios last time out in March.

Has never finished outside the top two over hurdles showing great consistency and always showing a strong challenge late on.

Market leader Monmiral did beat Gary Moore runner, Nassalam, by 7^1/2 lengths last time out at Haydock on a relatively level course on soft going.

Adagio only managed to beat Nassalam by 2^1/2 lengths at Chepstow in January but in the downhill straight must have made up 3 lengths just to get on terms late on.

Adagio has been through a stern acid test at Cheltenham but could go one better here.

14:50 “THE BETWAY BOWL CHASE” – CLONDAW CASTLE

This race is wide open and has so many storylines involved.

Tiger Roll is aiming for his third Aintree success in a row.

Former Gold Cup winner Native River is 11 years old and is gunning for possibly his last grade one for trainer Colin Tizzard before his retirement.

Henderson and Nicholls will be looking for grade one success after a quiet Cheltenham by their standards.

Clondaw Castle however is a horse on the rise after grade three success at Kempton in February, will relish good/good-soft going and looked much improved for stepping up to three miles last time out.

He also hasn’t finished outside the top two on good/good-soft in five starts going back to 2019 so could be in the picture.

15:25 “AINTREE HURDLE” – SILVER STREAK

Beat reigning Champion Hurdle winner, at the time, Epatante by 6^1/2 lengths in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December.

Epatante subsequently finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle showing her quality remained.

excluding the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November where he was carried out by a loose horse, he hasn’t finished outside the top two on ground described as good or good-soft in ten starts.

That’s a run that goes back to 2017. Strong each way claims.

16:40 “CLOSE BROTHERS RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE” – SULLY D’OC AA

Last seen 7th by over 13 lengths behind The Shunter at Cheltenham last month.

Last victory came at Ascot in October, beating Editeur Du Gite by 4^3/4 lengths.

There he only carried 5lb less than he will in this race and the weight difference between the two has only changed by 1lb in this horse’s favour.

Editeur Du Gite subsequently won over two miles at Newbury in a class three handicap giving credibility to the form.

Sully D’oc Aa also only finished just over 2 lengths 3rd behind grade three winning chaser Clondaw Castle last November over two miles three furlongs.

He is coming back down in trip which could suit his turn of foot at the end of a race as will the good ground.

A few of his favoured market rivals prefer courses with sharper corners and Getaway Trump, although a very good horse, is carrying top weight, a big ask over these fences.

This horse should be in the picture, is a good each way option and has strong support in the market.

BEACON EDGE

NON RUNNER

2. FRENCH DYNAMITE

OR:150 Hurdles: 7 starts, 3 wins, 1 place Trainer: Michael Morris

Jockey:Rachael Blackmore Form:514-251

2nd by ^1/2 length to Sire Du Berlais in the grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in November.

Sire Du Berlais went on to be runner up in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.

This form for me gives this horse the edge over Beacon Edge on paper and he definitely has that finishing gear that will be needed to beat him.

Has also picked up a few results on yielding ground and has a win at Thurles which is right handed.

Rachael Blackmore hasn’t had a winner at the meeting so far and this should soon change.

3. TURNPIKE TRIP

Last seen 17 lengths 4th behind Mt Leinster at Listowel in September 2020.

Last win was in October of 2019.

His best results have come on good ground and it is as close to good as can be at Fairyhouse at the moment.

However, his best result was a 2nd place effort in a 5 runner listed hurdle in July 2019 so he would have to improve massively would be a huge shock.

4. DEPARTMENT OF WAR

NON RUNNER

5. HANNON

NON RUNNER

6. SCARPETA

NON RUNNER

7. SIXSHOOTER

3rd behind Sire Du Berlais by 4 lengths at Navan in November 2020 and 3 lengths behind French Dynamite in 2nd.

disappointing 4th out of 5 runners last time out but this was over two miles on soft ground and his better form is on yielding/good going.

If runs to his best has a good chance at placing but form not in his favour and tends to finish behind those top quality horses.

8. THE BOSSES OSCAR

Places a lot against high quality opposition.

Will often hit the front late and weaken closer to the line allowing opposition to steal the victory.

Is coming back down in trip from the staying distance of three miles, however his last start over this distance he also finished 2nd to none other than French Dynamite.

This form may repeat itself here.

9. UNEXPECTED DEPTH

Jockey: Barry Browne Form:12-1324

An appropriately named horse!

coming down in trip and has notable form in December finishing 3 lengths 3rd to Dandy Mag and only 2 lengths behind The Bosses Oscar which puts him in the picture here.

In February finished 2nd to Maze Runner over three miles and the Dandy Mag finished 10th reversing the form which shows this horse maintained standards.

Has good form on yielding and right handed courses and could improve for the step down in trip, might sneak a place now Beacon Edge is a non-runner.

10. STORMY IRELAND

Back with Willie Mullins after a brief spell with Paul Nicholls racing in England.

Planned jockey Paul Townend won’t ride due to injury.

Didn’t win in her time there and this could be a worry given the strength of the Irish horses highlighted by the results at the Cheltenham Festival last month.

On her day was a very good horse and going back to the start of 2020 had a good 6 length victory over Franco de Port over two miles.

Last time out was 2nd to Whitehotchillifili at Sandown in January who finished last at Cheltenham in the Mares’ Hurdle.

Will have to roll back the clock a bit to challenge here.

VERDICT

1st FRENCH DYNAMITE – The conditions and the course suit and has a finishing gear a few of the fancied horses in the field don’t have. If in range on the shoulder of the leaders late on he could reel them in.

2nd THE BOSSES OSCAR – Could mount the same challenge as usual early in the straight and then, especially up the hill, could tire close to the line allowing the fast closing French Dynamite to take it from him, if he hasn’t already gone ahead. Expecting a repeat in form from Thurles last February.

3rd UNEXPECTED DEPTH – Tends to stay on well late and should do the same here. With the ground not being too soft could stay on behind the leaders from a mid division position and has been consistent lately at placing in a race with a few quality names in.

By Luke Hawkins

14:20 SHE’S COMMANCHE

Has course form over two miles two furlongs and won last time out over this trip of two and a half miles at Leopardstown in March.

Her rivals on this occasion have mainly picked up results on more undulating and less galloping courses in nature.

She should also appreciate the good ground and consistently challenges in fields with a lot of runners.

On top of this she is near the bottom of the weights carrying 10st 4lb.

14:50 GRAND BORNAND

Has finished 4th behind favourite Thedevilscoachman at Cork in November 2020 by 12 lengths where novicey jumping ultimately cost this horse.

However, has since been runner up by 9 lengths to grade three winner at two and a half miles Grand Paradis and was a convincing winner on good ground at Leopardstown last time out.

His jumping has also been tidied up since that race at Cork and will be able to set a faster pace from the front as a result.

Thedevilscoachman does have a good chance but he can also get low into a hurdle and hit them hard.

This should be a flaw this horse could punish and offers a decent option each way.

15:20 SKYACE

Finished a respectable 4th behind Telmesomethinggirl by 9 lengths at the Cheltenham Festival.

Glens of Antrim, Roseys Hollow, Gauloise and Hook Up all finished in behind and the long uphill finish really suited this horse.

The finish at Fairyhouse, although not as testing, does last for half a mile and should go in her favour.

Also boasts form over Global Equity and Brave Way.

Market rival Atlantic Fairy also has strong form claims but these good results have come on soft/heavy ground.

The race should be ran at a strong pace and as horses come off the bridle this horse’s stamina should come to the fore.

15:50 GENTLEMANSGAME

Well rested. Skipped the Cheltenham festival and was last seen in February finishing a respectable 5 lengths 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil in a very strong race.

Had previously impressed with a 21 length victory at Cork in January.

Cork is galloping and right handed much like the course at Fairyhouse and has shown he can handle a well run race.

Will face tough opposition in Grand Paradis, but will carry 3lbs less and has the cleaner jumping in his favour.

It could be close though.

16:25 JERANDME

Interesting horse who has never finished outside the top three across flat and national hunt racing and has only been seen twice over fences.

Was victorious in both and at Kilbeggan finished ahead of Star Max in 4th by over 7 lengths on good ground.

The good going will suit him better than most due to his previous experience on the flat.

Exit Poll has also beaten Star Max at Leopardstown by 4^1/2 lengths in March. Exit Poll has also finished 2nd behind grade three winning chaser Andy Dufresne.

This shows that he is capable of competing in this field but will carry 8lbs less than Exit Poll and at the time of writing is 12/1 so works out well each way.

17:00 ANDY DUFRESNE

2 wins and 1 place over fences including a grade three victory.

Finished a distant 3rd to the mighty Monkfish last time out but no shame in defeat in such a high class race. Asterion Ferlonge also finished a length behind in 4th.

This is Andy Dufresne’s optimum trip, two and a half miles and he has never finished outside the top three a sign of a class horse. He also won’t mind good ground.

Although Franco De Port has a grade one to his name, the race was ran at an extraordinary pace that meant the other runners were off the bridle fast and he finished late, something that might not happen here.

Conflated had also finished 3rd behind Monkfish but that was by over 60 lengths and ultimately the form behind Monkfish is the strongest indicator we have in this race for sheer quality.

If Andy Dufresne runs to form he should win.

TRIUMPH HURDLE – ZANAHIYR

Undeniable travelling ability especially over an undulating course.

Biggest margin of victory came at Fairyhouse when beating Saint Sam in 2nd by 14 lengths.

For comparison, market rival Quilixios beat Out Sam by 5^1/2 lengths at Leopardstown last time out and this was in February.

The race was run at a very strong pace and this horse coped with ease.

Last seen at Leopardstown where he won after a race ran at a slow pace which tells us he is adaptable.

Each Way Mention: Adagio has drifted in the market to 16/1 at the time of writing. Has previous form on the course and came from behind to beat Nassalam at Chepstow by 2^1/2 lengths. This performance showed a finishing gear, the previous form at Cheltenham will only help and with three places up for grabs is worth a go each way.

COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE – FIFTY BALL

Clearly has a lot of stamina, is normally in the picture late on and will appreciate the good ground.

Finished 2nd in a grade three, 3 lengths behind Soaring Glory so can perform in a big field.

Also ran out a 13 length winner at Sandown in December and although the opposition was poor finished convincingly uphill.

Will play it late as runners drop off near the end of the race and be in with a good chance.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE – THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE

three from three over hurdles and beat Fantastikas last time out at Musselburgh by ^3/4 of a length. This was over the three mile distance.

Fantastikas subsequently won his next race and had previous form in 2nd by a neck behind Barbados Buck’s who also runs here.

Paul Nicholls’ horses have been unusually quiet so far and this horse has shown good finishing ability so far.

The good ground will also suit this horse and you can expect him to be in with a great chance late on.

THE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP – A PLUS TARD

Defending champion Al Boum Photo, has replicated his previous Gold Cup preparation with a decisive warm up run at Tramore.

However, A Plus Tard has excellent form claims going into this.

Last time out at Leopardstown beat Kemboy (2nd, ^1/2 length), Melon (3rd, 1^1/2 lengths) and impressive Ryanair winner Allaho (4th, 20 lengths).

Came back to win from behind after Melon tried stretching the field far from home. This showed great stamina.

A Plus Tard also has rare form, in that he beat a genuine two miler over two miles, Chacun Pour Soi but has the ability to win over three miles, a sign of class.

It is very possible Al Boum Photo will complete a hattrick of Gold Cups, but after a close finish last time and a guaranteed strong pace set by Frodon, the race may play into A Plus Tard’s hands.

FOXHUNTERS’ CHASE – BILLAWAY

Runner up in this race last year to It Came to Pass by 10 lengths.

This season has notched up 2 wins and finished 2nd once to Stand Up and Fight.

This form was reversed when Billaway ran home a wide margin winner at Down Royal.

Main rival Bob and Co’s best form has come on softer ground and Hazel Hill who won this race in 2019 is getting on at the age of 13.

Billaway could easily get the job done as favourite here.

MARES’ CHASE – ELIMAY

Three out of four over fences and her only lost came to impressive Ryanair winner Allaho by only 3 lengths

Elimay beat Shattered Love by 5^1/2 lengths in February at Naas.

Will face tough competition from rival Colreevy but the other Mullins runner would prefer a bit of cut in the ground, a lot like most of her other rivals.

It could be close but Elimay should edge it.

MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE – FRONTAL ASSAULT

Was 2nd place behind very impressive grade one winner Energumene by 1^3/4 lengths in a bumper at Thurles last January.

has also picked up two wins in his last three runs over hurdles, both at undulating courses so Cheltenham should suit.

Is carrying 11 stone 3lbs and although there are some decent horses at the top of the weights there aren’t many recent wins between them.

This horse could sneak into a place or even clinch the final race on Gold Cup day.