Cheltenham Festival 2023

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 4: My Picks and Gold Cup Verdict

13:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – Blood Destiny

WILLIE Mullins has many to choose from in the first race and is likely to add to his tally of five from the first two days. Here he has the two market leaders, Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny. Both have been very impressive but the latter gets the pick here. He will be a bit fresher than Lossiemouth who ran at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. Lossiemouth finished second in a race where, despite always gradually making ground on those in front, was well held in the last few furlongs by a speedy stablemate Gala Marceau who also goes here. Blood Destiny has two wins from two starts since joining Willie Mullins and although the other two mentioned appear to be slicker over their hurdles, he has looked effortless in both wins. He has the ability to travel powerfully without using much stamina and it showed in his previous run in January where he stretched the field by setting a good pace and winning by 18 lengths. Nusret finished third on that occasion and went on to win a grade two. He also ran in defeat on Boxing Day and was third behind Lossiemouth. Nusret finished 16^1/2lengths behind the powerful grey, whereas he finished 18^1/2lengths behind Blood Destiny when they met. There isn’t much in it but Blood Destiny made it look like a training exercise and to win at Cheltenham that effortlessness will be useful.

14:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Favori De Champdou

GORDON Elliott has had two winners so far this festival with Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase and Sire Du Berlais yesterday in the Stayers’ Hurdle. This would be another win over the staying trip for an Elliott horse who has only ever finished outside the places once in ten starts and is fresh from a grade two victory in his last outing at the end of December. This runner wont mind soft conditions and runs through the line strongly at the end of three miles, suggesting he could go further if necessary which is always useful at Cheltenham due to the uphill finish. The reason this horse gets the pick ahead of the other Gordon Elliott runner, Three Card Brag, is because we have seen this horse run over a stayers’ trip multiple times and he is undefeated in three starts this season.

15:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

Best Bets

MINELLA INDO – Each Way
Proven in this race multiple times, form ahead of Stattler when he often loses in his first start of the season. Has been kept fresh, yard is in form at Cheltenham and price at the time of writing allows for profit even if he places. He has a really good chance of winning if Galopin Des Champs doesn’t fire.

and either
Reverse Forecast – Galopin Des Champs, Minella Indo
OR
Both tricasts
1st Galopin Des Champs, 2nd Minella Indo, 3rd Protektorat
1st Minella Indo, 2nd Galopin Des Champs, 3rd Protektorat

Verdict

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has two grade one wins from two starts over fences this season and is a strong favourite this year. If it wasn’t for an unlucky fall at last year’s festival he would be unbeaten over fences. Willie Mullins has made this horse a much more efficient jumper, who rarely takes off outside the wings anymore which although he has the ability to do, will have made him more efficient. The reigning Irish Gold Cup winner was impressive last time out and will be hard to beat. He will face tough competition from MINELLA INDO, who is a previous winner and last year’s runner up. That was despite the pace being relatively steady throughout which perhaps didn’t stretch stamina like when he won the race and he still beat many of the runners who go again here. There is likely to be more pace this year and he won his seasonal reappearance in January ahead of Irish Gold Cup runner-up Stattler, so has strong each way claims. The rain Cheltenham has seen in the last couple of days will test stamina which aids his cause. PROTEKTORAT could make up the places here and repeat his third place finish from last season. After claiming grade one success in the Betfair Chase at Haydock he disappointed in the Cotswold Chase here behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats. However, this horse has shown he can place in this race already and it is very possible he improves on his previous start.

16:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Grade 2) – Impervious

AFTER beating another JP McManus horse, Dinoblue, she was bought by the highly successful owner and won her next race ahead of eventual grade three chaser, Journey With Me. In that run, Impervious showed slick jumping and the ability to accelerate well on an undulating course. She was also carrying a penalty which saw her mares’ allowance wiped and she still convincingly beat Henry de Bromhead’s runner. McManus has already had success this week, with another horse he specifically bought for the festival, when A Dream To Share won the Champion Bumper. The favourite Allegorie De Vassy won’t be able to get away with the messy jumping she displayed last time, often jumping right and nearly unseating her rider early on. This horse has jumped cleanly and efficiently so far to date and has enough speed to win here.

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 3: My Picks

13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Mighty Potter

GORDON Elliot has two winners so far this Cheltenham, with Delta Work claiming back-to-back Cross Country Chases yesterday. Mighty Potter has won three out of three over fences, including two grade ones ahead of the National Hunt Challenge Cup winner Gaillard Du Mesnil. He also has form finishing ahead of Banbridge who was last seen finishing just a nose ahead of Appreciate It. This means he has significant form ahead of the Irish horses in the field and Gordon Elliott is hoping this horse will be one of his better chances for another win this week.

14:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – Janidil

LAST year’s runner-up made a winning return after 297 days off the track in the grade two Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park last month. Willie Mullins said his runner was “a little further advanced” than he thought and the result put him firmly in the Ryanair Chase picture. It was a graded winning return after a long lay off and he should improve for the run. This pick does mean that Shishkin doesn’t make the cut, a horse who appears to have tonnes more ability and is much more proven as a winner at grade one level. However, the ground has gone very soft and Shishkin was pulled up in similar conditions early in the Champion Chase last season. The conditions could produce an upset in favour of a horse with staying power and Janidil should fit that profile.

15:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Teahupoo

TEAHUPOO has been an impressive this season in two starts but is a newcomer to the staying hurdle division. He started the season by handing the amazing Honeysuckle her first ever defeat, over a trip of two-and-a-half miles and saw off established stayer Klassical Dream in the finish. This result showed that the horse had enough pace to see off the best two-miler of the last three seasons, but also had the stamina to fend off a stayer. He then won his first three-mile contest in January, the grade two Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park. He won by 15 lengths on very soft ground and although the form of the horses in behind hasn’t been that good lately, there were some strong staying types in there and he passed the test with flying colours. The conditions will be soft again here and the division looks quite open this season and this horse could be hard to beat based on the early season form.

16:10 – Magners Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Midnight River (Each Way)

WITH the Skeltons off the mark with Langer Dan’s victory in the Coral Cup, another handicap success could be on the cards on day three. He won a premier handicap here on New Years Day, finishing ahead of Stolen Silver who was just over two lengths in second. Il Ridoto was also in behind and won his subsequent run ahead of Fugitif at Cheltenham later in the month. He will carry 5lbs more than last time out but that retains a difference of 6lbs between him and Il Ridoto. Dan Skelton has said that good to soft ground that is soft in places would suit and thinks the horse could step up to three miles in future. Despite a weight increase he has form ahead of some of the key runners here and showed plenty of staying ability ahead of Stolen Silver last time out.

16:50 – Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – Luccia

LUCCIA has shown great ability, going unbeaten in four starts including two listed events over hurdles. Nicky Henderson has said he isn’t concerned if the ground were to be soft because she won a listed bumper in testing conditions. She has always shown the ability to travel powerfully and last time at Exeter, ignoring a messy final jump, she jumped cleanly on an undulating course. She has form ahead of Dan Skelton’s She’s A Saint, who although hasn’t won at graded or listed level, has never finished outside the top two. She also beat Eabha Grace in a bumper last season, who went on to win a grade three novices’ hurdle. The winning distance was 17 lengths, a sign of a class horse. She is yet to have ran above listed level, but certain parts of her form and the way she wins her races suggest she could easily achieve graded success.

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 2: My Picks

13:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Hermes Allen

PAUL Nicholls’ runner was the long time ante-post favourite for this race, until Willie Mullins’ Impaire Et Passe ran out an impressive winner of the grade two Moscow Flyer in January. Hermes Allen impressively won the trial for this race in November, showing very slick jumping on good ground and thoroughly saw out the half-mile uphill finish. He also followed this up by winning the grade one Challow Hurdle when he was last seen in December. The conditions there were soft and very testing on stamina. Again, he passed this test with flying colours and beat the likes of Marble Sands, Crambo and You Wear It Well who all went on to success in graded or listed events. His form against British rivals is unquestionably brilliant but now he will have to face the best of the Irish. His versatility, stamina and ability to gain lengths over hurdles should make him deceivingly hard to reach for some of the classy Irish contenders whatever the conditions are on the day. Nicholls has said he perhaps would have preferred better ground in the Challow run but his class came through and said he has a good chance.

14:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Sir Gerhard

THIS race looks wide open on paper and it is possible one of the other runners could take advantage of the fact this horse is lacking prep runs over fences. This horse is surely the one with the highest ceiling in this field. He was the Champion Bumper winner in 2021 and Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winner last season, showing prolific festival form. Willie Mullins has only been able to get one run into this horse over fences this season due to injury and he was a doubt for Cheltenham in December. He looked just as athletic as before on seasonal debut in late January, but his jumping was a worry, specifically early on. Mullins has suggested longer trip than usual of three miles will be run at a slightly slower pace and will make the jumping easier. He is capable of improving a horse off the track and the horse’s ability and stamina should see him overcome this field when stepping up in distance. Gerri Colombe is unbeaten in eight starts and has two grade one chases to his name as a novice, so it is easy to see why he leads the market. He did make hard work of things last time at Sandown and that form isn’t the strongest with those in behind unsuccessful at graded level over fences. The likes of Thyme Hill and The Real Whacker should be in the picture and will likely capitalise if Sir Gerhard’s jumping hasn’t improved.

15:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – Edwardstone

LAST year’s Arkle winner rarely runs a bad race and kicked off the season by winning the grade one Tingle Creek at Sandown ahead of multiple grade one winners. These included the defending champion Greaneteen, an out of sorts Shishkin, who is now a strong favourite for the Ryanair Chase and Gentleman De Mee who won the Dublin Chase last month. Edwardstone then unseated his rider in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton in December, before coming a close second in the Clarence House Chase in January. The grade one contest was rescheduled for the January meeting at Cheltenham, due to frozen ground at Ascot and it produced interesting course form. The reigning champion chaser Energumene finished six lengths behind this horse and the winner was a game Editeur Du Gite who made most of the running. Editeur Du Gite used a lot of effort in the run and his battling qualities were what helped him fend off Edwardstone who had the speed to win had the race been a few metres longer. Alan King’s runner comes here with confirmed form ahead of multiple top class horses and has built valuable experience during his first season as a novice. If he reproduces a performance like the one that saw him claim the Tingle Creek, Edwardstone will be hard to beat.

16:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase) – Delta Work

THIS pick may depend on the ground, with this horse likely to benefit from soft-heavy going. Gordon Elliott dominated this race last season where fan favourite and dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll was hoping for the perfect swan song. Delta Work spoiled the party with a gutsy performance to see off a prolific Cheltenham Festival winner and a special horse. He followed that victory with a third place finish in the Grand National the following month. At the January meeting here on the same course, Back On The Lash won by just over four lengths ahead of this horse in third. On that occasion Delta Work was a stone and 9lbs worse off in the weights than the eventual winner, with an abundance of horses finishing behind who also run here. His most recent run at Navan was very disappointing but it was over hurdles which may have worked against this horse and Blazing Khal was an impressive winner. It is important to mention the main threat is Galvin who is stepping down from graded company and is a standout name in this field. However, last season’s Gold Cup fourth has been underwhelming in his last two starts but isn’t without a chance because he is facing lower rated horses while carrying the same weight. Davy Russell takes the ride and the ground is widely believed to be changing in his favour, but as long as the ground description remains soft this race leans towards Delta Work who has shown better form.

17:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1) – Fun Fun Fun

IN recent years Willie Mullins has had frightening strength in depth at his disposal, especially with regards to bumpers. This horse gets the pick here mainly due to winning a grade two bumper at Leopardstown last month. The prize money guaranteed that this horse would face a field that boasted some winners. One of these was Lily Du Berlais who won a listed event in February last year where she finished ahead of Liberty Dance, who went on to win a listed novice hurdle. Fun Fun Fun beat her rival by nine lengths, making it a good piece of form that catches the eye in a bumper like this. Stablemate It’s For Me won impressively at Navan in January but there wasn’t an abundance of eventual winners in the race. The current favourite, Dream To Share, won a grade two last month, emphatically beating Fact To File in the process. He is a good horse who could easily win, but Fun Fun Fun will carry 7lbs less than most of her rivals due to the mares’ allowance.

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 1: My Picks

BEST PICKS
13:30 Tahmuras E/W
14:10 Jonbon
16:10 Marie’s Rock

13:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Tahmuras (Each way)

UNBEATEN in three starts this season and winner of the grade one Tolworth hurdle, Tahmuras may have gone under the radar thanks to heavily favoured market leader Facile Vega. Tahmuras impressed at Sandown in late January and showed efficiency in travelling, before pulling hard on the bridle late on and accelerating impressively in the final two furlongs. He was green and wandered quite inefficiently in the closing stages after flattening a few hurdles. He was still able to put daylight between himself and the likes of Nemean Lion in third, who won a grade two in his next start. This horse should improve before the festival and Paul Nicholls has said he has schooled well since then. Like last year’s winner Constitution Hill, the Tolworth hurdle he won doesn’t offer many clues on paper. However, Tahmuras visually appears to have a lot of ability and he should be in the picture. Willie Mullins’ market leader Facile Vega still heads the market but was an odds on chance until he finished a disappointing fifth at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. He got into a battle up front on that occasion and ran his race before turning into the home straight. Il Etait Temps was an impressive winner on that occasion and showed plenty of stamina. If Paul Townend can keep Facile Vega more reserved when travelling he could easily take this contest but Tahmuras’ price works out well each way and with improvement will have a great chance. After a hard run just a month before the festival for Facile Vega and a first blemish on the record, taking Mullins’ runner on each way could be a good move.

14:10 – Sporting Life Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Jonbon

ONE of the most anticipated runners at this year’s festival is Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon in the Arkle. With eight wins from nine starts, his only defeat came in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The eventual winner was Constitution Hill, who is now a heavy odds on favourite for the Champion Hurdle and finished last season as Timeform’s highest rated novice ever. Jonbon has a grade one novice chase to his name after winning the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. His latest run was last month, when he won the Kingmaker at Warwick in a match race against Dan Skelton’s Calico. His only rival was rated 23lbs lower, but Calico gave Jonbon a scare when he stole the lead early before the final bend and took the race to him. Jonbon was expected to win with ease but match races are often tactical and his rival appeared to catch him off guard after a poor jump.It looked awkward but Jonbon did well to come from behind and ultimately still won with ease. He boasts form over his main market rival El Fabiolo, as he beat Willie Mullins’ runner at Aintree by a neck last season. Considering this was just a month after Cheltenham, it was a big ask of Jonbon who showed heart to see off his rival on that occasion and it should be a repeat here.

14:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Into Overdrive

INTERESTINGLY, northern-based runners haven’t had much success at the festival, with just three winners since 2012. However, came in the most recent renewals of the Ultima with Vintage Clouds in 2021 and Corach Rambler last season. Mark Walford will be looking for his first success at the Cheltenham Festival while representing the North when Into Overdrive lines up on day one and he has some interesting form. He won a premier handicap chase at Wetherby, before stepping up in trip to take on grade one winner as a novice L’homme Presse to finish second by a length. He then beat Sounds Russian at Wetherby on Boxing Day in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase. Sounds Russian is a horse who was a close runner-up to Ahoy Senor in the grade two Cotswold Chase the following month and is entered in the Gold Cup. Despite receiving plenty of weight on both occasions, he will only carry 5lbs more than his previous run and has shown how dangerous he is when carrying a fair weight. He missed a planned run in January due to having a dirty scope but Walford has reported the horse has recovered and is ready for Cheltenham.

15:30 – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – Constitution Hill

UNFORTUNATELY from a writing perspective, this year’s Champion Hurdle market looks like it has been shut down in anticipation of possible domination from Constitution Hill. He ran out an impressive winner of the grade one Christmas Hurdle at Kempton by 17 lengths to second place Epatante, who is a former Champion Hurdle winner herself. On top of this, the form from last season’s Supreme Hurdle success shapes up impressively with Arkle favourite Jonbon finishing 22 lengths behind this horse in second. There are special markets for betting without Constitution Hill but State Man similarly dominates these markets at around 1/3 at the time of writing. The Michael Buckley owned runner seems to be a good thing, with the only concern for trainer Nicky Henderson being the fact it is hard to find horses who are good enough to work with him when training.

16:10 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle – Marie’s Rock

IN recent times, Marie’s Rock has become increasingly consistent at a high level, which explains her favouritism ahead of two former champion hurdlers. She is the reigning champion in this race and her last run was a win over course and distance in the grade two Relkeel Hurdle in January. She consistently runs at this distance, and showed excellent stamina in that run, seeing off Dashel Drasher who has strong staying qualities. She even had an entry in the Stayers’ Hurdle until recently which is ran over three miles. The reason this staying ability will be at a premium here is with the addition of Epatante and star mare Honeysuckle to the field, there is likely to be a strong pace, but a strong stayer could fend off both runners. Honeysuckle, despite having won this race in 2020 and multiple grade ones at two miles four furlongs, hasn’t been herself this season. Strong staying types like Teahupoo and Klassical Dream easily passed her in the closing stages of the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at the start of the season. Even when she was undefeated, Ronald Pump who lacks grade one success, came within half-a-length of her in the Hatton’s Grace in 2020. Epatante won her only grade one at this distance, the Aintree Hurdle, last year. Aintree is flat in nature and doesn’t present the stamina test of the stiff, uphill finish at Cheltenham. Love Envoi could also be in the picture here for similar reasons but Marie’s Rock gets the pick due to her eye-catching acceleration.

16:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Sir Allen

THIS horse has taken to hurdles well since recovering from an injury towards the back end of the flat season. In his final start on the flat he was only rated 70, but over hurdles has achieved two wins and a second place finish. This came in his first run of the season to none other than Blood Destiny, the joint-favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and it was only by five lengths. Despite Blood Destiny making it look like a light piece of work, Sir Allen kept with the pace well until very late on as Blood Destiny gradually pulled away with ease. This compares well to the form of Tekao, who is the favourite at the time of writing. Tekao recently finished third in a grade one juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown last month, finishing behind the other leading horse in the Triumph Hurdle market, Lossiemouth. It looks like the best form in the field on paper, but he lost by ten lengths, lost ground rapidly in the finish and has form finishing behind Jazzy Matty who also runs here. Jazzy Matty’s form after the two met has left a lot to be desired and he even lost to this horse last month at Naas. It isn’t a certainty but at his current price this horse has better claims than may be apparent.

17:30 – Wellchild National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – Gaillard Du Mesnil

THIS horse is currently the market leader and was last seen finishing third behind Mighty Potter in the grade one Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown last month. There is no shame in losing to the multiple grade one chaser, but it was ran at a distance under three miles. Over staying distances, this horse has managed a grade one victory in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase in December, ahead of Churchstonewarrior who also runs here. He also finished third in last year’s renewal of the grade one Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the festival, just under two lengths behind Ahoy Senor in second. Ahoy Senor was a grade one novice over fences and will run in the Gold Cup later this week. This form, along with a third place effort in the Irish Grand National last year, tells us this horse is a strong stayer who will be suited to the long trip. Gaillard Du Mesnil already has form ahead of one of the key runners here and arguably has faced the strongest horses out of anyone in the field.