Tag: Derby

1. ADAYAR

Looked like a horse with ability when winning the Golden Horn Maiden at Nottingham in October last year. However, the field in behind has produced few winners and none with real consistency. Was last seen finishing 2nd behind Third Realm in the Lingfield Derby trial where he didn’t show the steady balance needed of a horse at Epsom. Wouldn’t mind soft ground but the weather forecast suggests the ground will dry up a bit at the time of writing. Also starts from dreaded stall 1.

2. BOLSHOI BALLET

Impressive winner by 6 lengths in a Derby trial at Leopardstown. Finished 6^1/2 lengths ahead of Mac Swiney in 4th who went on to win the Irish 2000 Guineas and 8 lengths ahead of smart Sea The Stars colt Southern Lights in 6th. Would prefer good going but even if he doesn’t get that class could see him prevail. Full brother to Group three winner, Southern France, but has shown more consistency than him, putting up three wins in five starts. That run at Leopardstown displayed balance, stamina and athleticism and it is easy to see why he is favourite. Is also Aidan O’Brien’s only runner which is unusual and should be in the picture late on and it will take a good horse to beat him.

3. GEAR UP

Last seen when finishing 5th in the Dante Derby trial at York in May, 5 lengths behind the winner Hurricane Lane. Best result was ahead of Bolshoi Ballet in France last October as a two year old. This race may have summed up the requirements for this horse to have a chance. there was heavy going and he had control from the front with the pace not too demanding. The conditions also clearly worked against Bolshoi Ballet. This horse may not get the control he needs here and the drier the ground gets the less his chances get.

4. HURRICANE LANE

Frankel colt unbeaten in three starts, the most impressive being his last start in the Dante Derby trial in May. This result came on good ground ahead of a rejuvenated Megallan (^3/4 length 2nd), High Definition (2 lenghths 3rd) and Gear Up (5 lengths 5th). This is strong form. He also boasts a victory over a horse called Parachute who has since won a decent class three contest at Newmarket which shows he can reproduce quality. He seems to be able to go on most surfaces, a sign of a class horse and showed a quality engine in both races, with the Dante dictated by Hollie Doyle on Roman Empire. She set a quick pace from the front which means this horse passed a strong stamina test and showed adaptability. He should place here and could possibly win.

5. JOHN LEEPER

two wins from three starts, both this season. Interestingly Frankie Dettori picked up this ride after his original ride, High Definition, was taken out of the race by Aidan O’Brien. Last time out at Newmarket in May finished ahead of a few good horses, the most notable of which was Fancy Man. Fancy Man boasts the scalp of subsequent group three winner Alenquer, but this came as a two year old and he hasn’t had a win as a three year old. Tasman Bay in 2nd (1^3/4 lengths) had previously finished 3 lengths behind Hurricane Lane who goes here. This could be a question mark in the form. In the run at Newmarket, John Leeper showed strong traveling ability but wouldn’t switch off early on and going into the dip went slightly left. He appeared to be a horse with raw ability, but it was a bit rough around the edges and starting in stall 12 he faces a disadvantage. To stand a chance he will need to be tidier and prove what looks like raw ability is genuine.

6. MAC SWINEY

Irish 2000 Guineas winner beat Poetic Flare by a short head to claim the prize. Appeared to relish soft ground but here the ground might dry up a bit too much for him, this remains to be seen. All three of his victories have come on ground that has give. Stamina appears to be his strong suit so the step up in trip could benefit this horse but the question is will he have the speed needed in this quality field especially if conditions dry up? possibly not.

7. MOHAFETH

Looked like an extremely talented horse when winning at Newmarket in May. Unbeaten in three runs this season but this was the best of the lot, beating odds on favourite Secret Protector at a canter by 5 lengths. Secret Protector was favourite after a good win in Meydan in February and hasn’t finished outside the top three to date. Inigo Jones finished 3rd by 5^1/2 lengths. Inigo Jones is a good measure of quality because Sir Michael Stoute’s horses have been consistent in picking up results on the all-weather early in the season, so all run to a good standard. Mohafeth’s form shows he has finished ahead of many winners, some of those quite consistent and his physicality is glaring. Jim Crowley never had to move on him in this most recent run, he didn’t waver in the dip at Newmarket showing balance. His action was consistent throughout and the way he pumped his legs forward and changed leg with such ease a sign of great strength. Should definitely be in the picture and has an excellent chance of winning here. Works each way at the time of writing.

8. MOJO STAR

Finished 2nd twice in two starts. The 2nd of these came against Manobo by ^1/2 a length in a maiden at Newbury in may who looks like a decent prospect. Both races were ran at Newbury so it is yet to be seen if he can cope with undulations and both came on ground with some give. It is a big ask for a horse who has yet to put up a victory however and there are more attractive options here.

9 ONE RULER

Consistently finished in the top three before coming 6th in the 2000 Guineas in May. He has always looked like a horse who would benefit from a longer trip and has consistently raced against quality. He holds a group three victory but the most notable result being a hard fought effort at Doncaster in October where he finished 2nd to Mac Swiney by ^3/4 of a length. The winner went on to win the Irish 2000 Guineas and this was a group one ran on heavy going. These conditions suited the winner down to the ground. This horse definitely has some quality, because he has been involved in the business end of graded races so often. The team will be hoping that the long distance reduces emphasis on brute power in the finish as this horse has fallen short in the final sprint a few times. He is also drawn in stall 11 which isn’t ideal.

10. SOUTHERN LIGHTS

Only win came at Leopardstown in April where he looked like a horse that could go further than the 1^1/4 mile trip. he travelled well with a breakaway group up front and pulled away well from the remainder in the finish. The horses in behind however haven’t picked up many wins after this result. In a more recent run, this horse finished 6th of 7 runners behind impressive winner Bolshoi Ballet at Leopardstown in May. If this horse is to challenge he needs to show more quality than he has done on paper this far, but that’s not impossible.

11. THIRD REALM

Nice winner of the Lingfield Derby trial in May ahead of Adayar by 1^1/4 lengths. Appeared to like give in the ground but also has a previous result on good-firm. Showed great balance coming round the final bend and a nice burst of pace in the finish to overcome his rival and it was perhaps more impressive than the winning margin suggests. The doubt here would be that the runner up, although has some ability, appeared to struggle with the nature of the course and was still in with a chance up till the final furlong. Here there will be quality in depth and this horse has a terrible draw in stall 2.

12. YOUTH SPIRIT

Won the group three Chester Vase in May ahead of listed Epsom winner Wirko in 4th (9 lengths), Fancy Man (2^3/4 lengths) and Sandhurst (1^3/4 lengths). These horses aren’t bad but Wirko the horse with the highest achievement in terms of grade faded after setting a solid pace. This horse dealt with the pace well and if there is a ground description of good-soft or softer it will benefit him. Chester can produce Derby horses but as previously mentioned, Fancy Man hasn’t won since being a two year old and here it took a while for the winner to shake him off. He will handle the bends well due to his handy nature but he is quite small and Derby winners tend to be more well rounded than what this horse has shown.

VERDICT

1st MOHAFETH

2nd BOLSHOI BALLET

3rd HURRICANE LANE

Mohafeth and Bolshoi Ballet are difficult to see past and although Bolshoi Ballet probably edges it on paper, Mohafeth has shown excellent stamina and strength all season. This would provide Haggas with his first Derby winner since 1996 and his sire, Frankel, with his first Derby winner. Bolshoi Ballet should be very competitive late on but might just miss out especially if there does turn out to be give in the ground, but his class should see him up there regardless. Hurricane Lane could finish strongly late on showing better stamina than the remainder but not having the speed to get in front after the other two make their initial break from the field.