Kempton – Hawkinsport

My Picks: 27th December 2023

13:10 Leopardstown – Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase (Grade 1) –
Captain Guinness

LAST season’s Champion Chase runner-up impressed late last month when making his seasonal debut in a grade two contest at Navan. He ran out a seven length winner ahead of Riviere D’etel, with Dysart Dynamo and grade one winner over fences Saint Roi in behind. Dysart Dynamo set a decent pace and this horse appeared to have a lot left in the tank at the finish. In that run he only carried 2lbs less than he will in this race, which should provide confidence in his ability to give away weight to Dinoblue who will carry 7lbs less. He will only have to reproduce form ahead of Saint Roi and Dysart Dynamo, with the latter carrying 11lbs more here than he did at Navan. Gentleman De Mee in that case remains the only horse left to assess and he normally doesn’t hit form until February or March. Captain Guinness is a consistent performer who finished the runner-up in this race last season behind Blue Lord, who won’t run here. Racing is almost never simple but this horse appears the most likely winner for these reasons.

13:45 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Daddy Long Legs

THIS horse won his maiden in his second start at Thurles at the end of last month by an impressive 13 lengths. The Willie Mullins trained Almanzor gelding was bought for €210,000, after finishing a close second on the flat in France. His maiden performance over hurdles couldn’t have been more impressive, despite some regularly placed runners in behind, who on form are struggling to get rid of their maiden tag. Down Memory Lane also looks like a smart prospect but this horse gets the pick because when comparing both of their previous starts, Daddy Long Legs appeared to face a more testing pace and showed good jumping ability which will be needed in a grade one race. At the time of writing this horse has also gained favouritism over his market rival and it would be no surprise to see him justify his place in the market.

14:30 Kempton – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2) – Boothill

AFTER Haddex Des Obeaux wasn’t declared in the final stage of declarations so Boothill appears to be the obvious pick here, despite being near the top of the weights. Boothill is one of two runners in this field who has had recent winning form, with the other being Elixir De Nutz. Boothill’s form seems a tad more impressive, considering last month he beat a consistent performer and grade one winner in First Flow, before finishing ahead first ahead of Triple Trade at Ascot. Triple Trade, although hasn’t won at graded level, won a smart handicap in his next run. Boothill should be primed to take on Nube Negra and Editeur Du Gite, who have won impressive grade-level races in their career but haven’t been near their best form recently.

My Picks: Festive Racing 2023

13:05 Aintree – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly registered as the Tolworth Hurdle) – Jango Baie

JANGO Baie represents one of Nicky Henderson’s most promising prospects this season, after he was bought for £170,000 and claimed a dramatic close victory over Tellherthename at Ascot last month. He put in the hard work and tired the majority of the field, after Nico de Boinville set him free after some keen travelling early on. The runner-up, who won his next start, headed this runner before he fought back well to win by a nose. the run displayed an impressive engine, some clean jumping and good battling qualities. In recent years Nicky Henderson has won the Tolworth with none other than Constitution Hill, and although it would be a tough ask for this horse to match the achievements of his stablemate, he would appear to be a very smart horse who is in with a great chance of winning his first grade one.

13:10 Leopardstown – Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Mighty Bandit

GORDON Elliott’s gelding by Order Of St George caught the eye when winning his maiden towards the end of last month. after a race that was ran well he accelerated impressively to win by nine lengths and increasing as he hit the line. Behind him were Harsh who finished in third and stablemate Pacini in fourth, who both ran out as easy winners in their next starts. Interestingly, as reported by the Racing Post, this horse beat the time set later in the card by State Man by two seconds, although it should be noted State Man was carrying 12 lbs more. Jack Kennedy takes the ride on this horse over stablemate Kala Conti, who will be likely to make the running as she did in a narrow defeat to Nurburgring, who also runs here. Gordon Elliott has trained a few previous winners of this race in recent times and Mighty Bandit appears to justify favouritism in this renewal.

27th December

14:30 Kempton – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase – Haddex Des Obeaux

DESPITE being near the top end of the weights, Haddex Des Obeaux should go close based on the quality he has shown in two defeats this season. He was only carrying 2lbs less when he put in a very impressive shift at Cheltenham in October, and after making the running looked the likely winner when he fell at the last. The race produced subsequent winners in Triple Trade and Madara, and Notlongtillmay would go on to finish a runner-up to the impressive Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Haddex Des Obeaux then took a massive step up in class when he ran in the grade one Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown earlier this month and finished a respectable third. This was just four lengths behind the multiple grade-one winner Jonbon and just over two lengths behind Edwardstone in second. A drop back down to handicapping, with many of the runners carrying similarly high weights may see him return to winning form. Boothill appears to be the toughest opponent on paper, with form ahead of Triple Trade whilst carrying 12 stone to win at Ascot last month. The run behind Jonbon is the deciding factor in this pick however because Haddex Des Obeaux coped so well. To add to this, a recent move to Nicky Henderson’s yard can only be positive given the success of Seven Barrows.

Racing Tips: Kempton and Fairyhouse 26 February 2022

13:50 Kempton – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Knight Salute

Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles this season, Knight Salute has been a star for Wiltshire-based trainer Milton Harris. He has won two races at grade two level so far, with the application of a hood working well from the very first start at the new yard. He won the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November ahead of some promising types, before claiming his 2^nd grade one at Doncaster. This win was ahead of subsequent listed winner Impulsive One, who runs again here. This also confirmed form of a previous victory over Impulsive One at Kempton in October, giving this horse winning course form . He also beat Porticello, who recently picked up grade one success at Haydock. If there was an argument against the form, Porticello’s success was for less prize money than any of Knight Salute’s grade two wins, perhaps making for a less competitive field. The heavy conditions also suited him better than when he faced Knight Salute on good-soft. However, this is still form ahead of grade-level winners over hurdles that the rest of the field lacks and he justifies favouritism.

14:25 Kempton – Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – Pic D’orhy

With two wins from four starts this season, Pic D’orhy picked up grade two success over fences at Ascot in December. This came after his first attempt at graded success in this discipline crumbled with a bad fall when leading at Newbury. Millers Bank also unseated his rider in that race, something he would repeat in his most recent outing at Cheltenham. Pic D’orhy was last seen finishing a disappointing 3^rd in the grade one Scilly Isles Chase behind impressive winner L’Homme Presse. He kept on getting in close to the fences and in the closing stages wasn’t far off the winner going into the straight when he faded. The constantly changing undulations may have caused the otherwise good jumper issues, and trainer Paul Nicholls suggests the flatter course at Kempton should see improvement from him. The main threat in this race is Minella Drama who is coming off the back of a grade two success at Haydock on soft ground in January. He isn’t without a chance but the going here is going to be good with no rain forecast and that might just work in Pic D’orhy’s favour.

15:37 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – Annsam

last seen claiming the listed Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot, with Phoenix Way finishing four and a half lengths behind in 2^nd. On this occasion, the 6lb difference in weights carried by both horses will be the same as their previous meeting, working in Annsam’s favour. After defeat to this horse at Ascot, Phoenix Way went on to beat Venitia Williams trained Fanion D’estruval at Ascot. Williams’ runner was rated 159 by the handicapper, a mark that is higher than anything running in this race, even though the weights worked massively in Phoenix Way’s favour. A runner who isn’t without a chance is Our Power who runs for Welsh trainer Sam Thomas, who claimed an impressive double at Ascot last week. His horse has taken well to fences but would probably prefer softer going.

16:18 Fairyhouse – Tote Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) – Burrows Saint

Finished 4^th in last year’s Grand National. Burrows Saint hasn’t won since claiming an ungraded hurdle win at Punchestown in 2019. However, he has rarely been out of the places in the six runs since. He finished 2^nd in this race last year, and his latest run was a brave effort in 2^nd behind two time Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo. The grade three Savills Chase is Al Boum Photo’s regular destination for a prep run before Cheltenham and it was his 4^thvictory in the race. Burrows Saint led in the late stages and only finished four lengths behind the winner, the smallest distance any horse has lost to Al Boum Photo at Tramore. This might suggest Burrows Saint is getting near his best form again and he will carry 8lb less than two of his three opponents this time round. One of those horses is Any Second Now who finished 3^rdin the same Grand National, but was carrying 4lb less than Burrows Saint. More form of interest was in the 2019 renewal of the Irish Grand National where Any Second Now fell and Burrows Saint was the winner. Although Burrows Saint has declined slightly since this victory, it is still something to note and as mentioned his previous run showed promise.

Ladbrokes King George VI Chase: Runner by runner guide

Asterion Forlonge

Jockey: B J Cooper

Trainer: W P Mullins

Form: F4331-U

Wgt: 11-10lb t

7yoG Gelding

OR: 152

There are no reports that suggest Willie Mullins’ runner is worse for wear after unseating his jockey, Brian Cooper, in the John Durkan Memorial Chase earlier this month. His travelling ability saw him in the picture against eventual winner Allaho at Punchestown, before he got too low and blundered three fences from home. This is a mistake he has made a few times before, with two falls early last season after similar errors. When he finishes, he normally makes the places against top opposition. He finished 3^rd to Chantry House, who runs here, in the grade one Marsh Novice’s Chase at Cheltenham in March. He also finished a respectable 3^rd to Janidil at Fairyhouse in a grade one over 2^1/2 miles before claiming victory at Punchestown over the same distance that month. His trainer, Willie Mullins, also thinks this horse runs better right handed which shows in his previous three runs but he is stepping up to three miles or the first time.

2. Chantry House

Jockey: Nico De Boineville

Trainer: N J Henderson

Form: 13111-1

Wgt: 11-10lb

7yoBR Gelding

OR: 162

Last season’s grade one Marsh Novice’s Chase winner. Made his seasonal reappearance with a 37 length victory over The Big Breakaway at Sandown early last month. He also ended last season on a high at Aintree when winning the Grade one Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase by 32 lengths when closest challenger, Espoir De Romay fell two fences from home. Both these efforts came over the 3 mile distance and the win at Aintree provided a good stamina test, with the previously mentioned Espoir De Romay setting a good pace throughout. Chantry House is five wins from six runs over fences and his trainer Nicky Henderson is happy with his preparation, saying he is sharp. He also said that despite the previous couple of runs they haven’t “taught” him to go 3 miles, but speed won’t be a problem in the King George VI. This is his first time mixing it with some of the more established names in the staying division, having been a novice last season.

3. Clan Des Obeaux

Jockey: Harry Cobden

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 8/23211-

Wgt: 11-10lb p

9yoB Gelding

OR: 172

Two time former winner of the race in 2018 and 2019. Paul Nicholls’ runner underwent a wind op last season and didn’t finish outside the top three in five graded runs. He won the Betway Bowl by 26 lengths at Aintree and the Punchestown Gold Cup, ahead of two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo. These two big wins came near the back end of last season after the application of cheekpieces, which appeared to benefit him greatly and he will wear them again at Kempton. The King George VI will be Clan Des Obeaux’s seasonal debut and Nicholls has stated that this horse and Frodon are “the two to beat”.

4. Frodon

Jockey: Bryony Frost

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 14151-1

Wgt: 11-10lb t

9yoB Gelding

OR: 167

Winner of last year’s renewal and Cheltenham Gold Cup 5^th. This horse proved a massive problem for the field Boxing Day last year. He made all, but on the 2^nd lap had a tendency to jump slightly left. It didn’t hinder his chances because he corrected immediately after every obstacle. This also caused the horses in behind to follow suit, causing them to lose valuable ground and stamina with every jump. Clan Des Obeaux finished just over 8 lengths back in 3^rd, having been off the bridle before the final bend, Saint Calvados was just behind him in 4^th and Lostintranslation was pulled up. They all run again this year. Frodon’s seasonal debut saw him beat reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champion Minella Indo by 5 lengths, when winning the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal. Frodon’s Jockey, Bryony Frost, has also recorded a big grade one victory in the Tingle Creek at Sandown earlier this month.

5. Lostintranslation

Jockey: Brendan Powell

Trainer: C L Tizzard

Form: 3/3P5P-1

Wgt: 11-10lb t

9yoB Gelding

OR: 160

Earned his first win since 2019 in the grade two Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs last month. He had a 2^nd wind op prior to the run and ground conditions suited. He beat Dashel Drasher by 16 lengths who, although may have preferred softer going, had never lost at Ascot. In the last two renewals of this race however, Lostintranslation has been pulled up. in a Racing Post article after his seasonal reappearance, Joe Tizzard remained confident that the King George VI was the most suitable race for Lostintranslation and that he seemed reinvigorated by the recent operation. The yard are also much happier with his training performances after he was difficult to get a tune out of last season.

6. Minella Indo

Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

Trainer: H de Bromhead

Form: 11F41-3

Wgt: 11-10 p¹

8yoB Gelding

OR: 175

The reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champion. Henry de Bromhead’s charge was beaten by 5 lengths after a brave front-running effort by Frodon in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in late October. Bryony measured the fractions well and had this horse struggling after the 2^nd last fence. This run was respectable and could make for great preparation, with de Bromhead confident he will be better after the run. This run also reversed the Gold Cup form, as Frodon finished 30 lengths behind this horse in 5^th. His jockey, Rachael Blackmore, won BBC’s World Sport Star award last week and will be looking to add to her incredible achievements in the Aintree Grand National and at Cheltenham earlier this year. Minella Indo is bidding to become the first Irish-trained winner of the race since Kicking King in 2005, who also did it after winning the Gold Cup earlier that year. Wears cheekpieces for the first time here.

7. Mister Fisher

Jockey: Sean Bowen

Trainer: N J Henderson

Form: 4/P1PU2

Wgt: 11-10lb

7yoB Gelding

OR: 162

Last seen in the grade two Oaksey Chase, losing by a neck to a very game Frodon. This horse appeared to be getting the better of the reigning King George VI champion Frodon, who fought back winning by a neck after a stiff uphill finish. This horse’s highest achievement so far over fences came at Cheltenhem when winning a grade two chase over 2^1/2 miles. His best run over 3 miles was that previously mentioned effort against Frodon and the plan has always been to run him over 3 miles this season. Would prefer good ground.

8. Saint Calvados

Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 1422/4U-

Wgt: 11-10lb t¹

8yoB Gelding

OR: 162

Has moved stables to Ditcheat with Paul Nicholls and has undergone a wind op. Last year finished 4^th, over 8 lengths behind eventual winner Frodon. his best win came in the grade two Betway Kingmaker Novices’ Chase in February 2018. This year the field has strengthened with the addition of the Gold Cup winner. He wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Nicholls has described him as a “lively outsider”. At his best he finished 2^nd by a neck to Min in the 2020 Ryanair over 2^1/2 miles, with A Plus Tard and Frodon both finishing behind him.

9. Tornado Flyer

Jockey: D E Mullins

Trainer: W P Mullins

Form: 22543-5

Wgt: 11-10lb

8yoB Gelding

OR: 161

Last seen finishing 5^th in the grade one John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase earlier this month. Asterion Ferlonge unseated rider three fences out. Hasn’t won a race since 2019 and this is his first time running 3 miles since last year’s renewal of the grade one Savills Chase, where he also finished a distant 5^th. In other contests ran over 2^1/2 miles he has shown late progress in races so a step up to 3 miles is thought to suit him.