My Picks – Page 2 – Hawkinsport

My Picks: 29th December 2023

13:10 Leopardstown – BeattheBank.ie Irish EBF Mares Hurdle (Grade 3) – Space Tourist (Each way)

WILLIE Mullins has clearly stated that this horse is probably at her best in quicker summer conditions, but she won a listed mares’ hurdle in October on heavy going over a further distance. This is a much better field but, conditions should keep the race from being too fast, whilst the level of opposition should also see an injection of pace before the straight. If she can replicate the relatively strong travelling speed on similar testing ground conditions and clean jumping she should be in the picture late. Grade three would probably be the limit for this horse. Mullins’ mare has drifted in the market and her price allows for an each way punt and is probably a big part of the appeal.

13:40 Doncaster – KC Sofas Doncaster Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares’ Chase (Listed) – Zambella

THIS would make it a hattrick of victories in the Silver Vase for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ mare. She would probably prefer more cut in the ground but has won this race when the going was good before. She was at her best in her previous start when running out a 17-length winner at Aintree in a listed mares’ chase on heavy ground. Her ability over fences and engine came to the fore. This win came ahead of Pink Legend who also runs here. The alternative pick on good ground would probably be Fantastic Lady who has form over Zambella from a listed mares’ chase at Market Rasen last year. She has since been unsuccessful in four starts against tougher fields than this with two places. Her last run was in the Grand Sefton at Aintree 35 days ago, and it was a tough race over the famous Aintree fences whilst carrying top weight. Her route to this race may have been tougher on her than the route Zambella has been on, who picked up a win in her last start which is also important. Fantastic Lady must be considered and could very easily win herself, but something about this race has suited Zambella in the last two years, which is why she just edges this pick.

13:45 Leopardstown – Neville Hotels Novice Chase (Grade 1) –
Favori De Champdou

IF Favori De Champdou can replicate his last run, it will take a mighty effort to beat him. He tracked a free-running Flooring Porter and put in an excellent round of jumping. Flooring Porter set his usual frantic gallop from the front and was quirky in front occasionally wondering across the course before being corrected. Favori De Champdou would have been forgiven for tiring after the fast pace but he didn’t. He naturally travelled past Flooring Porter late on and, despite being clear, kicked on and finished emphatically. That race was not only an important piece of form, but was probably the most testing previous run of any of the horses in this race. He passed the test with flying colours and could be the nap of the day, with the only concerns will be his lack of runs on left-handed tracks and a possibility of Flooring Porter finding his old spark.

14:05 Limerick – Parkway Shopping Centre Rated Novice Hurdle –
Splashing Out

CURRENTLY joint favourite at the top of the market with Henry de Bromhead’s mare She’s A Fine Wine. There isn’t a lot of form that catches the eye in this race but the two market leaders both boast a win over course and distance on heavy going this season. This horse is carrying 7lb claimer Peter Smithers, whilst 3lb claimer Mike O’Connor takes the ride on She’s A Fine Wine. Therefore, this horse, despite carrying 12 stone, is effectively 4lbs better off than her rating when compared to her rival. She carried the same weight to victory last time out at Limerick. Meanwhile, She’s a fine Wine carried 11 stone 7lbs in her win in October over course and distance in the same conditions. Her run was three seconds slower than this horse managed.

My Picks: Savills Chase 28th December 2023

13:50 Leopardstown – Jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle – Irish Point

GORDON Elliot’s grey capped off last season with a grade one win at Aintree in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. This came ahead of the likes of Hermes Allen and You Wear It Well who were successful grade-winning hurdlers. The way he ran through the line after a trip of two miles and four furlongs suggested this horse would get three miles. He made his seasonal debut at Gowran Park last month over a trip of two miles, finishing 1_^3/4 lengths ahead of Magical Zoe who has success at grade three level and was carrying 13lbs less. Whilst the rest of the field here are more established at the distance but this horse may have speed the others don’t have and this would make it four wins in a row.

14:25 Leopardstown – Savills Chase (Grade 1) – Gerri Colombe

THIS horse has a glittering record so far in his career, with 10 wins from 11 starts and the only defeat coming by a short head to The Real Whacker at Cheltenham earlier this year. He has won four grade ones over fences and has extraordinary battling qualities in the closing stages. With two Gold Cup winners, a former winner of this race in the shape of Conflated and an Irish Grand National winner in I Am Maximus, this will undoubtedly be the toughest field he has faced on paper. He missed the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day due to a lack of rain specifically to run here. This is a horse with a lot of ability whose career has been thoughtfully plotted so far, so his inclusion in the field warrants great interest.

Verdict

My Picks: 27th December 2023

13:10 Leopardstown – Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase (Grade 1) –
Captain Guinness

LAST season’s Champion Chase runner-up impressed late last month when making his seasonal debut in a grade two contest at Navan. He ran out a seven length winner ahead of Riviere D’etel, with Dysart Dynamo and grade one winner over fences Saint Roi in behind. Dysart Dynamo set a decent pace and this horse appeared to have a lot left in the tank at the finish. In that run he only carried 2lbs less than he will in this race, which should provide confidence in his ability to give away weight to Dinoblue who will carry 7lbs less. He will only have to reproduce form ahead of Saint Roi and Dysart Dynamo, with the latter carrying 11lbs more here than he did at Navan. Gentleman De Mee in that case remains the only horse left to assess and he normally doesn’t hit form until February or March. Captain Guinness is a consistent performer who finished the runner-up in this race last season behind Blue Lord, who won’t run here. Racing is almost never simple but this horse appears the most likely winner for these reasons.

13:45 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Daddy Long Legs

THIS horse won his maiden in his second start at Thurles at the end of last month by an impressive 13 lengths. The Willie Mullins trained Almanzor gelding was bought for €210,000, after finishing a close second on the flat in France. His maiden performance over hurdles couldn’t have been more impressive, despite some regularly placed runners in behind, who on form are struggling to get rid of their maiden tag. Down Memory Lane also looks like a smart prospect but this horse gets the pick because when comparing both of their previous starts, Daddy Long Legs appeared to face a more testing pace and showed good jumping ability which will be needed in a grade one race. At the time of writing this horse has also gained favouritism over his market rival and it would be no surprise to see him justify his place in the market.

14:30 Kempton – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2) – Boothill

AFTER Haddex Des Obeaux wasn’t declared in the final stage of declarations so Boothill appears to be the obvious pick here, despite being near the top of the weights. Boothill is one of two runners in this field who has had recent winning form, with the other being Elixir De Nutz. Boothill’s form seems a tad more impressive, considering last month he beat a consistent performer and grade one winner in First Flow, before finishing ahead first ahead of Triple Trade at Ascot. Triple Trade, although hasn’t won at graded level, won a smart handicap in his next run. Boothill should be primed to take on Nube Negra and Editeur Du Gite, who have won impressive grade-level races in their career but haven’t been near their best form recently.

My Picks: Festive Racing 2023

13:05 Aintree – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly registered as the Tolworth Hurdle) – Jango Baie

JANGO Baie represents one of Nicky Henderson’s most promising prospects this season, after he was bought for £170,000 and claimed a dramatic close victory over Tellherthename at Ascot last month. He put in the hard work and tired the majority of the field, after Nico de Boinville set him free after some keen travelling early on. The runner-up, who won his next start, headed this runner before he fought back well to win by a nose. the run displayed an impressive engine, some clean jumping and good battling qualities. In recent years Nicky Henderson has won the Tolworth with none other than Constitution Hill, and although it would be a tough ask for this horse to match the achievements of his stablemate, he would appear to be a very smart horse who is in with a great chance of winning his first grade one.

13:10 Leopardstown – Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Mighty Bandit

GORDON Elliott’s gelding by Order Of St George caught the eye when winning his maiden towards the end of last month. after a race that was ran well he accelerated impressively to win by nine lengths and increasing as he hit the line. Behind him were Harsh who finished in third and stablemate Pacini in fourth, who both ran out as easy winners in their next starts. Interestingly, as reported by the Racing Post, this horse beat the time set later in the card by State Man by two seconds, although it should be noted State Man was carrying 12 lbs more. Jack Kennedy takes the ride on this horse over stablemate Kala Conti, who will be likely to make the running as she did in a narrow defeat to Nurburgring, who also runs here. Gordon Elliott has trained a few previous winners of this race in recent times and Mighty Bandit appears to justify favouritism in this renewal.

27th December

14:30 Kempton – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase – Haddex Des Obeaux

DESPITE being near the top end of the weights, Haddex Des Obeaux should go close based on the quality he has shown in two defeats this season. He was only carrying 2lbs less when he put in a very impressive shift at Cheltenham in October, and after making the running looked the likely winner when he fell at the last. The race produced subsequent winners in Triple Trade and Madara, and Notlongtillmay would go on to finish a runner-up to the impressive Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Haddex Des Obeaux then took a massive step up in class when he ran in the grade one Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown earlier this month and finished a respectable third. This was just four lengths behind the multiple grade-one winner Jonbon and just over two lengths behind Edwardstone in second. A drop back down to handicapping, with many of the runners carrying similarly high weights may see him return to winning form. Boothill appears to be the toughest opponent on paper, with form ahead of Triple Trade whilst carrying 12 stone to win at Ascot last month. The run behind Jonbon is the deciding factor in this pick however because Haddex Des Obeaux coped so well. To add to this, a recent move to Nicky Henderson’s yard can only be positive given the success of Seven Barrows.

Aintree Grand National Festival Day 1: My Picks

13:45 – Racehorse Lotto Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Stage Star

CHELTENHAM-Aintree doubles can be very rare and tend to only be completed by the best in class, such as Buveur D’Air after his first Champion Hurdle, and more recently Shishkin and of course Tiger Roll. Stage Star has had a brilliant season over fences and his superb jumping should see him in with a great chance of doing the double against only four opponents. Joint favourite Banbridge isn’t without a chance and gave Cheltenham a miss last month, but has come up short to top class opposition in his last two starts against the likes of El Fabiolo and Mighty Potter. This horse has the best form in the field after winning the Turners Novices’ Chase last month, where he finished ahead of multiple grade one winners Mighty Potter and Appreciate It.

14:20 – Jewson Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – Nusret

THIS horse has placed behind top class opposition like Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny during the course of the season but has been saved for Aintree. He will also appreciate the ground if it stays good as his last start showed, where Perseus Way and Scriptwriter both finished in behind him at Kempton. It is worth noting that the favourite, Zenta has a good chance and placed behind Lossiemouth at Cheltenham last month. It was a much closer affair than when Nusret finished 16 lengths behind the star mare on Boxing Day. The reason Nusret gets the pick is because Zenta is coming off the back of a tough contest at Cheltenham, Nusret picking up a win in his most recent outing and some similarities to O’Brien’s Fakir D’oudairies. He is Joseph O’Brien’s most successful Aintree runner, a dual grade one winner at Aintree who could also perform on good going. He also often placed behind top class horses and last season skipped Cheltenham before winning the Marsh Chase.

14:55 – Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – Ahoy Senor

FESTIVAL form can be at a premium at the Grand National meeting and this horse could make it three wins in three seasons here. Despite the classy Bravemansgame finishing behind this horse on both occasions, the withdrawal of Paul Nicholls’ Gold Cup runner-up will only improve the chances of this horse. He often runs enthusiastically out front on the good ground at Aintree at this time of year and his trainer Lucinda Russell as descried him as a “spring-time horse”. She has remained positive after this horse suffered a fall in the later stages of the gold cup last month, but based on his previous results from the last two years he will take some beating. His powerful travelling ability should be able to cause A Plus Tard, Shishkin and Conflated problems, provided his jumping has improved as it did here last season.

16:05 – Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (National Course) – Winged Leader

THERE will be an element of unfinished business with this pick for anyone who backed this horse at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He travelled powerfully once in front, displaying excellent jumping and, for a hunters’ chaser, great agility. The one thing the performance was missing was restraint and a brilliantly judged late surge by Billaway under Patrick Mullins saw the race slip from his grasp in the final strides up the hill. This horse is a perfect three from three this season in point-to-points and steps down in trip to two-miles-five-furlongs here. If he displays the same relentless late gallop here, with a flatter course and the shorter distance, he will be hard to stop.

17:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2) – Seeyouinmydreams

THIS horse really caught the eye at a bumper at Newbury six weeks ago. The run followed a wind op and provided similar conditions to what is expected here. She looked like pure class and although it is difficult to put into context due to many runners on that occasion being lightly raced bumper horses, the nature of the victory was very promising. She set a strong pace, stretched the field putting in all the hard work herself and cruised late on, all whilst on the bridle and extended the lead to a winning margin of 11 lengths. The eye test says this is a very worthy favourite and could be the pick of the bunch.

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 4: My Picks and Gold Cup Verdict

13:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – Blood Destiny

WILLIE Mullins has many to choose from in the first race and is likely to add to his tally of five from the first two days. Here he has the two market leaders, Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny. Both have been very impressive but the latter gets the pick here. He will be a bit fresher than Lossiemouth who ran at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. Lossiemouth finished second in a race where, despite always gradually making ground on those in front, was well held in the last few furlongs by a speedy stablemate Gala Marceau who also goes here. Blood Destiny has two wins from two starts since joining Willie Mullins and although the other two mentioned appear to be slicker over their hurdles, he has looked effortless in both wins. He has the ability to travel powerfully without using much stamina and it showed in his previous run in January where he stretched the field by setting a good pace and winning by 18 lengths. Nusret finished third on that occasion and went on to win a grade two. He also ran in defeat on Boxing Day and was third behind Lossiemouth. Nusret finished 16^1/2lengths behind the powerful grey, whereas he finished 18^1/2lengths behind Blood Destiny when they met. There isn’t much in it but Blood Destiny made it look like a training exercise and to win at Cheltenham that effortlessness will be useful.

14:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Favori De Champdou

GORDON Elliott has had two winners so far this festival with Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase and Sire Du Berlais yesterday in the Stayers’ Hurdle. This would be another win over the staying trip for an Elliott horse who has only ever finished outside the places once in ten starts and is fresh from a grade two victory in his last outing at the end of December. This runner wont mind soft conditions and runs through the line strongly at the end of three miles, suggesting he could go further if necessary which is always useful at Cheltenham due to the uphill finish. The reason this horse gets the pick ahead of the other Gordon Elliott runner, Three Card Brag, is because we have seen this horse run over a stayers’ trip multiple times and he is undefeated in three starts this season.

15:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

Best Bets

MINELLA INDO – Each Way
Proven in this race multiple times, form ahead of Stattler when he often loses in his first start of the season. Has been kept fresh, yard is in form at Cheltenham and price at the time of writing allows for profit even if he places. He has a really good chance of winning if Galopin Des Champs doesn’t fire.

and either
Reverse Forecast – Galopin Des Champs, Minella Indo
OR
Both tricasts
1st Galopin Des Champs, 2nd Minella Indo, 3rd Protektorat
1st Minella Indo, 2nd Galopin Des Champs, 3rd Protektorat

Verdict

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has two grade one wins from two starts over fences this season and is a strong favourite this year. If it wasn’t for an unlucky fall at last year’s festival he would be unbeaten over fences. Willie Mullins has made this horse a much more efficient jumper, who rarely takes off outside the wings anymore which although he has the ability to do, will have made him more efficient. The reigning Irish Gold Cup winner was impressive last time out and will be hard to beat. He will face tough competition from MINELLA INDO, who is a previous winner and last year’s runner up. That was despite the pace being relatively steady throughout which perhaps didn’t stretch stamina like when he won the race and he still beat many of the runners who go again here. There is likely to be more pace this year and he won his seasonal reappearance in January ahead of Irish Gold Cup runner-up Stattler, so has strong each way claims. The rain Cheltenham has seen in the last couple of days will test stamina which aids his cause. PROTEKTORAT could make up the places here and repeat his third place finish from last season. After claiming grade one success in the Betfair Chase at Haydock he disappointed in the Cotswold Chase here behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats. However, this horse has shown he can place in this race already and it is very possible he improves on his previous start.

16:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Grade 2) – Impervious

AFTER beating another JP McManus horse, Dinoblue, she was bought by the highly successful owner and won her next race ahead of eventual grade three chaser, Journey With Me. In that run, Impervious showed slick jumping and the ability to accelerate well on an undulating course. She was also carrying a penalty which saw her mares’ allowance wiped and she still convincingly beat Henry de Bromhead’s runner. McManus has already had success this week, with another horse he specifically bought for the festival, when A Dream To Share won the Champion Bumper. The favourite Allegorie De Vassy won’t be able to get away with the messy jumping she displayed last time, often jumping right and nearly unseating her rider early on. This horse has jumped cleanly and efficiently so far to date and has enough speed to win here.

Haydock Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes Verdict

Possible Bets

To Win

Minzaal

Verdict

MINZAAL gets the pick here after an impressive performance finishing a respectable second to Highfield Princess in the Arc Prix Maurice De Gheest late last month. The winner went on to win another group one in the Nunthorpe at York in simplistic fashion. When the two met at Deauville, Minzaal had to come from further back in the field and still managed to gain many lengths on the eventual winner, before being held in the last half-furlong. Ultimately the places don’t look too defined here, and a straight win seems the best pick as Minzaal’s recent form stands out. He has been a consistent performer, only finishing outside of the top three once in his career. NAVAL CROWN also finished behind Highfield Princess in France where he finished fifth. He tried to go with the winner when she initially broke from the pack and appeared to lose stamina in the closing stages. The rest of the pack mounted a later challenge and a few horses unexpectedly overtook him. Rohaan was one of those late challengers who finished ahead of Charlie Appleby’s horse, but he hasn’t been as consistent as Naval Crown in group one company and subsequently finished seventh in the Nunthorpe. GO BEARS GO was disappointing in his last group one contest at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup. However, he has since placed second behind Minzaal in the group three Hackwood Stakes and won the group three Phoenix Sprint Stakes at Curragh. His recent form includes a promising run, finishing second behind the predicted winner here and his front-running style could see him make up the places.

My Picks: Ebor Meeting Day 4 & Sandown

14:05 Sandown – JRL Group Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) – Fonteyn – Win

THIS horse already boasts listed winning form ahead of the favourite for this race, Grande Dame. Fonteyn showed honesty in the final two furlongs, fending off the challenge of Grande Dame when they met at York in May. Grande Dame has possibly earned favouritism here by beating Oscula in a listed race at this course over the distance of a mile. This came after she finished a disappointing 11^th of 12 in the group one Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Oscula has since gone on to win at group three level twice so it is entirely possible Grande Dame could win here. Fonteyn on the other hand finished fourth in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last month. This was a promising run in a group one contest over a mile and one furlong. This would suggest she has the stamina to make it up the hill at Sandown over a mile and she coped better at group one level. What didn’t help her in that run is she didn’t settle well in the first furlong but considering the level of the competition fourth was impressive. Being a three-year-old filly, Fonteyn also carries six pounds less than the majority of the field, who arguably have worse form.

15:00 York – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 2) – Pogo – Each Way

AT the time of writing, Pogo makes for great value each way and if the weather forecast is correct he will get preferred conditions of good or quicker here. He will face the likes of Sandrine and Jumby who have finished ahead of him in his two previous outings, both being group two contests. Sandrine was carrying ten pounds less than Pogo at Goodwood last month and only beat him by just over a neck. With the weight difference eight pounds in her favour this time, Pogo might be able to reverse the form. Jumby’s victory in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last week was more convincing and it saw Pogo finish out of the places. He has however placed in group two contests four times in his career, twice over the distance of seven furlongs and even placed third in the group one Prix D’ispahan in July 2020. He is a front-runner who fights hard to hold his position in the late stages and has proved he can challenge at this level. He could be in the picture again here and a placing would be enough to see returns.

16:45 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Rocket Rodney

ROCKET Rodney steps back down in class to listed level after a special performance by Trillium denied him a group three success at Goodwood in the Molecomb. he led two furlongs from home and was unlucky to face an incredible turn of foot by the eventual winner to overtake him. George Scott’s runner still finished second and he is the only horse in this field who has had success at listed level. That earns Rocket Rodney a three pound penalty he should be able to overturn. He is also straightforward for a sprinter and is normally well behaved before races, which would explain why he has been first in the stalls in his last two races. This is a small detail but very important at York as it is easy for temperamental runners can get too worked up on their way to post. This is a field of two-year-old sprinters and this could be an important factor.

My Picks: York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes Verdict

Predicted Finish

Possible Bets

To Win Or Each Way

Highfield Princess

Tricasts

1st Highfield Princess

2nd Raasel, Khaadem, Royal Aclaim

3rd Raasel, Khaadem, Royal Aclaim – 6 Combinations.

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is fresh off the back of a very impressive group one victory in the Arc Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville earlier this month. There, she beat Naval Crown and Perfect Power who have both won at group one level, with group three winners Minzaal and Garrus making up the places. She steps down in trip to five furlongs here. RAASEL was last seen finishing in second place behind KHAADEM in the group two King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood last month. This form could easily be reversed, as Raasel made impressive progress late on after being short of room and reduced a gap of three lengths to only a neck on the line. ROYAL ACLAIM should also be in the picture. She is unbeaten in three starts and won a listed race at York in July. She will carry two pounds less than Highland Princess and five pounds less than Raasel and Khaadem. This does represent a big jump up in class and that is why she is included here but not to win, but she appears to have a lot of ability. Highfield Princess offers some value at the time of writing and works each way, while the other three mentioned will make up the places in the tricasts. The different combinations offer some cover as all three are good runners and it could be very competitive for the places.