Paul Nicholls – Hawkinsport

Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day Three Picks

13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race) – GINNY’S DESTINY

REIGNING champion trainer of Britain Paul Nicholls saddled the winner of this race last season, where Stage Star ran out an impressive winner over multiple grade 1 winner Mighty Potter at odds of 15/2. This time he trains
Ginny’s Destiny, who he said after his last run is better than Stage Star was at this point last season. After a disappointing showing on his seasonal reappearance he has racked up a hattrick of wins, each more impressive than the last. In the process he has reversed form over hurdles with Grey Dawning and has improved 22lbs in the ratings with no sign of it slowing down any
time soon. The main danger here is Facile Vega, with Willie Mullins’ yard in red hot form two days into the festival and he will be stepping up in trip to 2 miles 4 furlongs for the first time in his career.

14:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (GBB Race) – STAGE STAR

NICHOLLS could follow success in the first race of the day by winning the Ryanair with last year’s winner of the Turners. Stage Star won a premier handicap chase here in November in a dominant front-running display with excellent jumping and showed a bit of toughness to survive a huge scare after the last. On New Year’s Day he pulled up behind Shakem Up’arry but this was when carrying top weight on very testing heavy ground. He hasn’t run since and if last season is anything to go by he should be coming into his own at this time of year. He does have form finishing fifth behind Banbridge at Aintree last season but that did feel like he left his best at Cheltenham and Banbridge had been saved for the Aintree meeting. It should be very different if the real
Stage Star shows up here.

15:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) – CRAMBO

LAST seen achieving a career best when fending off a brave late surge from Paisley Park to win the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December. Although his rival is now 12 years old, he has retained a lot of ability and has also come within a head of beating Dashel Drasher and Noble Yeats this season so the form is solid. After the Long Walk Hurdle success, Crambo boasts form ahead of many of the big British runners. Last year’s third Teahupoo runs again here for Gordon Elliott who has kept Teahupoo fresh with only one previous start this season and he is the current favourite. If Crambo reproduces that performance we saw in December, he stands every chance in an open race.

Cheltenham Festival 2023 Day 2: My Picks

13:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Hermes Allen

PAUL Nicholls’ runner was the long time ante-post favourite for this race, until Willie Mullins’ Impaire Et Passe ran out an impressive winner of the grade two Moscow Flyer in January. Hermes Allen impressively won the trial for this race in November, showing very slick jumping on good ground and thoroughly saw out the half-mile uphill finish. He also followed this up by winning the grade one Challow Hurdle when he was last seen in December. The conditions there were soft and very testing on stamina. Again, he passed this test with flying colours and beat the likes of Marble Sands, Crambo and You Wear It Well who all went on to success in graded or listed events. His form against British rivals is unquestionably brilliant but now he will have to face the best of the Irish. His versatility, stamina and ability to gain lengths over hurdles should make him deceivingly hard to reach for some of the classy Irish contenders whatever the conditions are on the day. Nicholls has said he perhaps would have preferred better ground in the Challow run but his class came through and said he has a good chance.

14:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Sir Gerhard

THIS race looks wide open on paper and it is possible one of the other runners could take advantage of the fact this horse is lacking prep runs over fences. This horse is surely the one with the highest ceiling in this field. He was the Champion Bumper winner in 2021 and Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winner last season, showing prolific festival form. Willie Mullins has only been able to get one run into this horse over fences this season due to injury and he was a doubt for Cheltenham in December. He looked just as athletic as before on seasonal debut in late January, but his jumping was a worry, specifically early on. Mullins has suggested longer trip than usual of three miles will be run at a slightly slower pace and will make the jumping easier. He is capable of improving a horse off the track and the horse’s ability and stamina should see him overcome this field when stepping up in distance. Gerri Colombe is unbeaten in eight starts and has two grade one chases to his name as a novice, so it is easy to see why he leads the market. He did make hard work of things last time at Sandown and that form isn’t the strongest with those in behind unsuccessful at graded level over fences. The likes of Thyme Hill and The Real Whacker should be in the picture and will likely capitalise if Sir Gerhard’s jumping hasn’t improved.

15:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – Edwardstone

LAST year’s Arkle winner rarely runs a bad race and kicked off the season by winning the grade one Tingle Creek at Sandown ahead of multiple grade one winners. These included the defending champion Greaneteen, an out of sorts Shishkin, who is now a strong favourite for the Ryanair Chase and Gentleman De Mee who won the Dublin Chase last month. Edwardstone then unseated his rider in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton in December, before coming a close second in the Clarence House Chase in January. The grade one contest was rescheduled for the January meeting at Cheltenham, due to frozen ground at Ascot and it produced interesting course form. The reigning champion chaser Energumene finished six lengths behind this horse and the winner was a game Editeur Du Gite who made most of the running. Editeur Du Gite used a lot of effort in the run and his battling qualities were what helped him fend off Edwardstone who had the speed to win had the race been a few metres longer. Alan King’s runner comes here with confirmed form ahead of multiple top class horses and has built valuable experience during his first season as a novice. If he reproduces a performance like the one that saw him claim the Tingle Creek, Edwardstone will be hard to beat.

16:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase) – Delta Work

THIS pick may depend on the ground, with this horse likely to benefit from soft-heavy going. Gordon Elliott dominated this race last season where fan favourite and dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll was hoping for the perfect swan song. Delta Work spoiled the party with a gutsy performance to see off a prolific Cheltenham Festival winner and a special horse. He followed that victory with a third place finish in the Grand National the following month. At the January meeting here on the same course, Back On The Lash won by just over four lengths ahead of this horse in third. On that occasion Delta Work was a stone and 9lbs worse off in the weights than the eventual winner, with an abundance of horses finishing behind who also run here. His most recent run at Navan was very disappointing but it was over hurdles which may have worked against this horse and Blazing Khal was an impressive winner. It is important to mention the main threat is Galvin who is stepping down from graded company and is a standout name in this field. However, last season’s Gold Cup fourth has been underwhelming in his last two starts but isn’t without a chance because he is facing lower rated horses while carrying the same weight. Davy Russell takes the ride and the ground is widely believed to be changing in his favour, but as long as the ground description remains soft this race leans towards Delta Work who has shown better form.

17:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1) – Fun Fun Fun

IN recent years Willie Mullins has had frightening strength in depth at his disposal, especially with regards to bumpers. This horse gets the pick here mainly due to winning a grade two bumper at Leopardstown last month. The prize money guaranteed that this horse would face a field that boasted some winners. One of these was Lily Du Berlais who won a listed event in February last year where she finished ahead of Liberty Dance, who went on to win a listed novice hurdle. Fun Fun Fun beat her rival by nine lengths, making it a good piece of form that catches the eye in a bumper like this. Stablemate It’s For Me won impressively at Navan in January but there wasn’t an abundance of eventual winners in the race. The current favourite, Dream To Share, won a grade two last month, emphatically beating Fact To File in the process. He is a good horse who could easily win, but Fun Fun Fun will carry 7lbs less than most of her rivals due to the mares’ allowance.

Aintree Grand National Festival: Grand National Day 3 Tips

14:25 – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Walking On Air

This horse was last seen winning a novices’ hurdle at Newbury, pulling away emphatically and was a similar path Nicky Henderson’s star two miler, Shishkin, took in 2020. This horse however, gave Cheltenham a miss so goes into this race fresh and will get good ground which can only benefit his speed. He will face tough competition from multiple graded winners with more form to reference. Nicky Henderson said he missed Cheltenham because he wasn’t ready and is a “big baby” but he could be anything. This horse is fresh and appeared to have excellent finishing speed last time out and could be a lightly raced, quality horse.

15:00 – Poundland Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Edwardstone

Edwardstone is the reigning Arkle winner and has been the star novice two miler this season. Currently on an unbeaten run of five wins, with four at graded level, this horse has shown exceptional consistency all season. His trainer Alan King has said he has no concerns ahead of the race after giving the horse a two month break after Christmas. He already holds form where he finished ahead of For Pleasure and Third Time Lucki who run here. The most threatening rival here is Gentleman De Mee but he doesn’t have the leading form claims of Alan King’s stable star. This is a great chance for him to complete a rare Cheltenham-Aintree double.

15:35 – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) – Thyme Hill

Thyme Hill won last year’s renewal of this race and comes into this race as a very respectable runner-up of the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. With the likes of Clan Des Obeaux, Ahoy Senor and Fakir D’oudairies all claiming victory so far at the festival, course and festival form is at a premium. If Flooring Porter turns up at his best the reigning Stayers’ Hurdle champion will take some beating, but he can be quirky and Thyme Hill only has about 3 lengths to make up based on the Cheltenham form. He also has form ahead of many of the runners here, from last year’s renewal of this race and the Stayers’ at Cheltenham.

16:15 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – Killer Kane

This horse has made five starts this season but has won both starts since the application of a tongue-tie in February. He was last seen achieving a career best by winning a listed success at Sandown last month. He comes into the race carrying the 2^nd lowest weight in the race and the jumping test at Aintree will suit this horse if his last run was anything to go by. He faces tough opposition in winner at grade one level Shan Blue, but he will be carrying 1 stone 3lbs more than Colin Tizzard’s runner and is winless since Boxing Day last year. Shan Blue has been competing at a higher level than this horse, but this horse showed a lot of promise at Sandown. He also has a win over the three mile trip which makes this horse less of an unknown quantity.

Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Longhouse Poet

This horse made a good impression when winning an ungraded event at Gowran Park in January. Escaria Ten, Death Duty, Coko Beach, Brahma Bull and Class Conti all finished in behind and all run here. His best results have come over long distances, having run twice over trips that were three miles one furlong and he won both. He will carry 11lbs more than Death Duty here who is a well fancied runner for Gordon Elliott but the winning margin when they last met was over 20 lengths in this horse’s favour whilst 6lbs worse off in the weights. Longhouse Poet also has form ahead of Run Wild Fred, another fancied runner, in a beginners chase in December 2020. Longhouse Poet has had two months off the racecourse and will be relatively fresh. His last run he finished a disappointing 7^th of nine runners in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan. This is a race that Tiger Roll often won in the build up to the Grand National and although he lost, this will have acted as a good prep-run for Martin Brassil’s runner. The return to a longer trip and fences will suit his strengths and he is in with a great chance in the big one.

18:20 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2) – Henri The Second

This horse was last seen winning a listed NH flat race at Ascot in December. The race produced two smart winners in Authorised Speed and Top Dog, with many of the others finishing in the places in their following races. Paul Nicholls has kept this horse fresh with a three month lay off. Paul Nicholls told Betfair that he could be his best chance on the day but has stated that if the ground gets too good it could be a worry. Henri The Second has followed the same path this season as Nicholls’ Knappers Hill, who completed the hattrick last season and this horse has a good chance of emulating that success.

Racing Tips: Kempton and Fairyhouse 26 February 2022

13:50 Kempton – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Knight Salute

Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles this season, Knight Salute has been a star for Wiltshire-based trainer Milton Harris. He has won two races at grade two level so far, with the application of a hood working well from the very first start at the new yard. He won the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November ahead of some promising types, before claiming his 2^nd grade one at Doncaster. This win was ahead of subsequent listed winner Impulsive One, who runs again here. This also confirmed form of a previous victory over Impulsive One at Kempton in October, giving this horse winning course form . He also beat Porticello, who recently picked up grade one success at Haydock. If there was an argument against the form, Porticello’s success was for less prize money than any of Knight Salute’s grade two wins, perhaps making for a less competitive field. The heavy conditions also suited him better than when he faced Knight Salute on good-soft. However, this is still form ahead of grade-level winners over hurdles that the rest of the field lacks and he justifies favouritism.

14:25 Kempton – Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – Pic D’orhy

With two wins from four starts this season, Pic D’orhy picked up grade two success over fences at Ascot in December. This came after his first attempt at graded success in this discipline crumbled with a bad fall when leading at Newbury. Millers Bank also unseated his rider in that race, something he would repeat in his most recent outing at Cheltenham. Pic D’orhy was last seen finishing a disappointing 3^rd in the grade one Scilly Isles Chase behind impressive winner L’Homme Presse. He kept on getting in close to the fences and in the closing stages wasn’t far off the winner going into the straight when he faded. The constantly changing undulations may have caused the otherwise good jumper issues, and trainer Paul Nicholls suggests the flatter course at Kempton should see improvement from him. The main threat in this race is Minella Drama who is coming off the back of a grade two success at Haydock on soft ground in January. He isn’t without a chance but the going here is going to be good with no rain forecast and that might just work in Pic D’orhy’s favour.

15:37 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – Annsam

last seen claiming the listed Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot, with Phoenix Way finishing four and a half lengths behind in 2^nd. On this occasion, the 6lb difference in weights carried by both horses will be the same as their previous meeting, working in Annsam’s favour. After defeat to this horse at Ascot, Phoenix Way went on to beat Venitia Williams trained Fanion D’estruval at Ascot. Williams’ runner was rated 159 by the handicapper, a mark that is higher than anything running in this race, even though the weights worked massively in Phoenix Way’s favour. A runner who isn’t without a chance is Our Power who runs for Welsh trainer Sam Thomas, who claimed an impressive double at Ascot last week. His horse has taken well to fences but would probably prefer softer going.

16:18 Fairyhouse – Tote Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) – Burrows Saint

Finished 4^th in last year’s Grand National. Burrows Saint hasn’t won since claiming an ungraded hurdle win at Punchestown in 2019. However, he has rarely been out of the places in the six runs since. He finished 2^nd in this race last year, and his latest run was a brave effort in 2^nd behind two time Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo. The grade three Savills Chase is Al Boum Photo’s regular destination for a prep run before Cheltenham and it was his 4^thvictory in the race. Burrows Saint led in the late stages and only finished four lengths behind the winner, the smallest distance any horse has lost to Al Boum Photo at Tramore. This might suggest Burrows Saint is getting near his best form again and he will carry 8lb less than two of his three opponents this time round. One of those horses is Any Second Now who finished 3^rdin the same Grand National, but was carrying 4lb less than Burrows Saint. More form of interest was in the 2019 renewal of the Irish Grand National where Any Second Now fell and Burrows Saint was the winner. Although Burrows Saint has declined slightly since this victory, it is still something to note and as mentioned his previous run showed promise.

Ladbrokes King George VI Chase: Runner by runner guide

Asterion Forlonge

Jockey: B J Cooper

Trainer: W P Mullins

Form: F4331-U

Wgt: 11-10lb t

7yoG Gelding

OR: 152

There are no reports that suggest Willie Mullins’ runner is worse for wear after unseating his jockey, Brian Cooper, in the John Durkan Memorial Chase earlier this month. His travelling ability saw him in the picture against eventual winner Allaho at Punchestown, before he got too low and blundered three fences from home. This is a mistake he has made a few times before, with two falls early last season after similar errors. When he finishes, he normally makes the places against top opposition. He finished 3^rd to Chantry House, who runs here, in the grade one Marsh Novice’s Chase at Cheltenham in March. He also finished a respectable 3^rd to Janidil at Fairyhouse in a grade one over 2^1/2 miles before claiming victory at Punchestown over the same distance that month. His trainer, Willie Mullins, also thinks this horse runs better right handed which shows in his previous three runs but he is stepping up to three miles or the first time.

2. Chantry House

Jockey: Nico De Boineville

Trainer: N J Henderson

Form: 13111-1

Wgt: 11-10lb

7yoBR Gelding

OR: 162

Last season’s grade one Marsh Novice’s Chase winner. Made his seasonal reappearance with a 37 length victory over The Big Breakaway at Sandown early last month. He also ended last season on a high at Aintree when winning the Grade one Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase by 32 lengths when closest challenger, Espoir De Romay fell two fences from home. Both these efforts came over the 3 mile distance and the win at Aintree provided a good stamina test, with the previously mentioned Espoir De Romay setting a good pace throughout. Chantry House is five wins from six runs over fences and his trainer Nicky Henderson is happy with his preparation, saying he is sharp. He also said that despite the previous couple of runs they haven’t “taught” him to go 3 miles, but speed won’t be a problem in the King George VI. This is his first time mixing it with some of the more established names in the staying division, having been a novice last season.

3. Clan Des Obeaux

Jockey: Harry Cobden

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 8/23211-

Wgt: 11-10lb p

9yoB Gelding

OR: 172

Two time former winner of the race in 2018 and 2019. Paul Nicholls’ runner underwent a wind op last season and didn’t finish outside the top three in five graded runs. He won the Betway Bowl by 26 lengths at Aintree and the Punchestown Gold Cup, ahead of two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo. These two big wins came near the back end of last season after the application of cheekpieces, which appeared to benefit him greatly and he will wear them again at Kempton. The King George VI will be Clan Des Obeaux’s seasonal debut and Nicholls has stated that this horse and Frodon are “the two to beat”.

4. Frodon

Jockey: Bryony Frost

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 14151-1

Wgt: 11-10lb t

9yoB Gelding

OR: 167

Winner of last year’s renewal and Cheltenham Gold Cup 5^th. This horse proved a massive problem for the field Boxing Day last year. He made all, but on the 2^nd lap had a tendency to jump slightly left. It didn’t hinder his chances because he corrected immediately after every obstacle. This also caused the horses in behind to follow suit, causing them to lose valuable ground and stamina with every jump. Clan Des Obeaux finished just over 8 lengths back in 3^rd, having been off the bridle before the final bend, Saint Calvados was just behind him in 4^th and Lostintranslation was pulled up. They all run again this year. Frodon’s seasonal debut saw him beat reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champion Minella Indo by 5 lengths, when winning the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal. Frodon’s Jockey, Bryony Frost, has also recorded a big grade one victory in the Tingle Creek at Sandown earlier this month.

5. Lostintranslation

Jockey: Brendan Powell

Trainer: C L Tizzard

Form: 3/3P5P-1

Wgt: 11-10lb t

9yoB Gelding

OR: 160

Earned his first win since 2019 in the grade two Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs last month. He had a 2^nd wind op prior to the run and ground conditions suited. He beat Dashel Drasher by 16 lengths who, although may have preferred softer going, had never lost at Ascot. In the last two renewals of this race however, Lostintranslation has been pulled up. in a Racing Post article after his seasonal reappearance, Joe Tizzard remained confident that the King George VI was the most suitable race for Lostintranslation and that he seemed reinvigorated by the recent operation. The yard are also much happier with his training performances after he was difficult to get a tune out of last season.

6. Minella Indo

Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

Trainer: H de Bromhead

Form: 11F41-3

Wgt: 11-10 p¹

8yoB Gelding

OR: 175

The reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champion. Henry de Bromhead’s charge was beaten by 5 lengths after a brave front-running effort by Frodon in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in late October. Bryony measured the fractions well and had this horse struggling after the 2^nd last fence. This run was respectable and could make for great preparation, with de Bromhead confident he will be better after the run. This run also reversed the Gold Cup form, as Frodon finished 30 lengths behind this horse in 5^th. His jockey, Rachael Blackmore, won BBC’s World Sport Star award last week and will be looking to add to her incredible achievements in the Aintree Grand National and at Cheltenham earlier this year. Minella Indo is bidding to become the first Irish-trained winner of the race since Kicking King in 2005, who also did it after winning the Gold Cup earlier that year. Wears cheekpieces for the first time here.

7. Mister Fisher

Jockey: Sean Bowen

Trainer: N J Henderson

Form: 4/P1PU2

Wgt: 11-10lb

7yoB Gelding

OR: 162

Last seen in the grade two Oaksey Chase, losing by a neck to a very game Frodon. This horse appeared to be getting the better of the reigning King George VI champion Frodon, who fought back winning by a neck after a stiff uphill finish. This horse’s highest achievement so far over fences came at Cheltenhem when winning a grade two chase over 2^1/2 miles. His best run over 3 miles was that previously mentioned effort against Frodon and the plan has always been to run him over 3 miles this season. Would prefer good ground.

8. Saint Calvados

Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

Trainer: P F Nicholls

Form: 1422/4U-

Wgt: 11-10lb t¹

8yoB Gelding

OR: 162

Has moved stables to Ditcheat with Paul Nicholls and has undergone a wind op. Last year finished 4^th, over 8 lengths behind eventual winner Frodon. his best win came in the grade two Betway Kingmaker Novices’ Chase in February 2018. This year the field has strengthened with the addition of the Gold Cup winner. He wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Nicholls has described him as a “lively outsider”. At his best he finished 2^nd by a neck to Min in the 2020 Ryanair over 2^1/2 miles, with A Plus Tard and Frodon both finishing behind him.

9. Tornado Flyer

Jockey: D E Mullins

Trainer: W P Mullins

Form: 22543-5

Wgt: 11-10lb

8yoB Gelding

OR: 161

Last seen finishing 5^th in the grade one John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase earlier this month. Asterion Ferlonge unseated rider three fences out. Hasn’t won a race since 2019 and this is his first time running 3 miles since last year’s renewal of the grade one Savills Chase, where he also finished a distant 5^th. In other contests ran over 2^1/2 miles he has shown late progress in races so a step up to 3 miles is thought to suit him.